Risk - an event or group of related random events that cause damage to the economic entity, obladayuschemu this risk. The inability to accurately determine the time (and sometimes place) of occurrence of the events referred to sluchaynostyu (sometimes unpredictable). Deterioration or poteryu property assets, other assets (including intellektualnyh) a person called damage.
Loss of property assets is expressed in its destruction, the deterioration of consumer properties, a loss of value. In practice predprinimatelskoy damage to property interests is often expressed as a loss or reduction of income. It can be expressed in its natural form (physical) or value (economic).
Most of the adverse events has the property of the probability of their realization. The probability of the event - it is a mathematical sign, meaning the ability to calculate the frequency of occurrence of the event in the presence of sufficient kolichestva statistical data (observations).
The risk of a single event has the two most vazhnymi properties - probability and damage. Risk as sovokupnost event has set its implementations, each of which has its own probability and extent of damage.
Each adverse event is generated by a set of underlying causes, t. E. The incidents. Chain posledovatelnyh steps leading from the incident to the final Soba-ment, called the principal, - a script. Knowing the probability of occurrence of the initial incident and the intermediate steps, we can calculate the probability of this scenario and the corresponding main event.
Risk Classification may be based on different characteristics: on the nature of the danger; deyatelnosti in nature, which is associated with risks; the nature of the objects that are at risk.
By the nature of the danger of release:
- Man-made (or antropogennye)
- Miscellaneous risks.
Man-made risks generated by economic deyatelnostyu man:.. Accidents, pollution, etc. An example is the fire risks svyazannye the impact of fire on various objects.
Natural risks are independent of human activity. These are mainly the risks of natural disasters: zemletryaseniya, flood, hurricane, typhoon, lightning, volcanic eruptions, and so on..
Mixed risks - are events of natural origin, initiated by human activities. Primerom may be a landslide caused by the conduct of stroitelnyh work.
By the nature of the activities of the risks are:
Entrepreneurial - associated with the deployment of production and profit, namely: the shortfall in earnings as a result of production downtime, bankruptcy, loss of profit, incidental expenses and others.
The financial and kommercheskim include risks of financial management and trade relations between partners in the transaction: the failure of contractual obligations counterparty, loan defaults, unforeseen litigation expenses.
Professional related to the execution of persons of my professional duties.
To include investment risks which arise when investing investors to obtain pri were, for example, changes in yield securities risk, interest rate, currency, country.
Transport risks can arise during transportation gostinichnoy clientele, who arrived in a certain area where there is a hotel (from the airport, train station, sea porta), its carriage of luggage, as well as all kinds of goods or gostinitsy functioning at its restaurant. Special vnimanie must be paid to transport risks, possible when the tour programs offered by the travel agency (travel agency) certain hotels.
The same on the nature of the risks may occur in razlichnyh areas of economic activity. For example, the risk of changes in exchange rates occurs in the investment and commercial activities related to export-importnymi supplies.
Production (technological) risks typical for production activities of hotels and restaurants: the failure of equipment, utilities, communications, complex technical systems, as well as zdany damaged buildings, machinery, tools, plants, separate units and so on..
By the nature of the objects at risk are distinguished:
Risk management - a multi-stage process, which aims to reduce or compensate for the damage upon the occurrence of adverse events. Minimizing uscherba and risk reduction - the concept is not adequate, however suschestvuyut various financial control mechanisms, chastnosti insurance, providing compensation uscherba without affecting neither its size nor the probability nastupleniya.
The initial phase, which aims to obtain the necessary information on the structure and properties of the object at risk, called risk analysis. The analysis consists of a-ment to identify risks and evaluate them.
Evaluation - this is a quantitative description of the identified riskov, during which determined their characteristics, such as the probability and size of possible damage. At this time, a set of adverse situations formiruetsya scenarios and for different risks can be built distribution function of the probability of occurrence of damage in zavisimosti of its size.
Identification and evaluation are closely linked, and it is not always possible to divide them into samostoyatelnye part of the overall process. Furthermore, the analysis is often in two opposite directions - from evaluating vyyavleniyu to, and vice versa. In the first case, there are already (zafiksirovany) losses and need to identify the causes. In the second case detected risks and their consequences on the basis of system analysis.
The economic life of enterprises gostepriimstva industry can meet the following risks: environmental, industrial, investment, business, finansovye, commercial, country, credit, technical, political, and so on..
Under the environmental risk is the probability of nastupleniya civil liability for damage okruzhayuschey environment, as well as the life and health of third parties. It may occur during the construction and operation of production facilities, and is a major part promyshlennogo risk.
Damage to the environment is reflected in the form of contamination or destruction of forests, water, air and land resources (for example, by fire or construction work), naneseniya harm the biosphere and farmland.
Under the phrase "damage to life and zdorovyu third parties" shall mean the result of the harmful effects of the factors of production activities surrounding the Industrial object population, expressed in the form of uvelicheniya morbidity and mortality.
Hotels and other accommodation facilities pitaniya people and located near the industrial enterprises podverzheny industrial risks.
An industrial risk naneseniya understand the danger of damage to the enterprise and to third parties as a result of disruption of the production process as a result of events of various nature:
technogenic - depreciation of buildings, structures, machinery and oborudovaniya errors in its design or installation, zloumyshlennye action, etc .;
Damage to third parties is the result of an explosion or toxic substances spread beyond the enterprise. This is possible as the property damage to the population and organizations, as well as physical damage zdorovyu people.
Investment risks associated with nedopolucheniya profit or loss during the implementation of projects investitsionnyh.
They are classified according to the characteristics of the project and realizatsii way to raise funds. In general, there are the following:
- Arising in the first stage of the investment project;
- Enterprise associated with the second stage of the project investitsionnogo;
Business risks - distinguish between internal and external.
External related to the application of loss and non-receipt of expected profits as a result of an entrepreneur narusheniya its obligations contractors entrepreneur or other circumstances beyond his circumstances.
Internal depend on the entrepreneur's ability organizovat production and marketing of the product of hotel and restaurant service. They are influenced by the following factors: the level of management, cost, quality and reliability produkta, sales conditions, advertising, product sales organization of hotel and restaurant services, the availability of working capital, clients and others.
Damage from business risks may be direct or indirect.
Direct damage - a loss of fixed and current assets, physical damage to personnel, physical and property damage to third parties (the people and organizations).
Indirect damage - a loss of income (loss vygoda) due to interruption of business for various reasons.
Business risks can be caused by sleduyuschimi reasons:
nature - earthquake, flood, hurricane, tornado, lightning, storm (of the sea), a volcanic eruption, etc .;.
the fall of aircraft "and parts thereof;
depreciation of buildings and structures, machinery breakdown and oborudovaniya;
breach of its obligations under the transactions predprinimatelya counterparties;
contingencies - litigation and other.
Business risks include the following main types:
the risks of lack of demand for services produced;
failure to risks of economic contracts (kontraktov);
the risk of increased competition in the market of hotel uslug;
risks of changes in market conditions uslug hotel;
the risk of unforeseen costs and revenues snizheniya;
the risk of losing the property business organizatsii;
force majeure risks.
The risk of lack of demand for hotel services and restorannoy products. It arises due to the refusal of consumers from purchasing manufactured certain hotel now functioning or when it predpriyatiyami food. The causes of such riska may be many, and they are divided into internal and vneshnie.
Internal reasons depend on the activity of the predpriyatiya (hotels, restaurants), its divisions, services, changes, teams and individual employees. These include:
qualified staff (employees);
organization of the process of production services;
organization providing hotel or restaurant materialnymi resources;
services sales organization;
organization made advertising services;
market research uslug hotel and others.
Risk level lack of demand for services depends on the level of qualification of the staff sfery enterprise services, its business skills and personal interest. The organization of the process in the production of gostinichnogo product also affects the level of risk nevostrebovannosti services. The use of worn-out production facilities leads to frequent breakdowns inzhenernyh networks, communications equipment. As a result, uvelichivaetsya repair time, increased costs sebestoimosti beds, reduced service quality.
Reasons for non-compliance of the technological process in gostinitse can be grouped into two groups:
dependent personnel: low upravleniya, errors in planning, lack of knowledge tehnologii production, the use of outdated oborudovaniya, weak quality control, the use of nedobrokachestvennyh materials, raw materials, components, low production discipline, poor motivation of employees and etc.
independent of the hotel's sudden shutdown elektroenergii, interruptions in the water supply, emergency stop equipment utilities, communications, etc...
On the level of risk indirectly affect the quality of raw materials, timing their arrival to the enterprise, as well as price. Especially negatively it affects the restaurant busi- ness. Replacing the necessary products on the other may increase the risk in the event that replacement products or more expensive or do not meet the technical standards MANUFACTURING-trolled products. And this leads to an increase in prices proizvodimoy products and a drop in demand for it even when quality uluchshenii.
The direct impact on the level of risk nevostrebovannosti services may have other internal factors:
the organization of the sales network and service promotion system
to the consumer;
choice of distribution channels - use the services of wholesale and retail intermediary firms or self realizatsiya services to the consumer.
The possibility of the risk of lack of demand uslug with inefficient marketing organization is likely to sleduyuschih situations:
if the hotel relies on its own sales channels, management can make mistakes in the selection and placement of personnel in the service of marketing, wage organizations underestimate or overestimate the importance of the network of regional staff and razezdnyh sales agents; if the hotel in order to maintain greater independence ekonomicheskoy disclaims posrednikov-service firms and creates its own distribution network, which costs soderzhaniya cause a decrease in the volume of profits. It mozhet reduce the competitiveness of services and obemov their sales;
if the hotel provides intermediary firms isklyuchitelnye rights sales services on a local or regionalnom markets. Lack of interest in companies-intermediaries or lack the necessary experience, low uroven material resources can reduce the amount of prodazh hotel services.
Before taking any steps to organizatsii advertising services, the hotel is necessary to determine for what purpose it is done as correctly chosen motif or advertising image may lead to an entirely protivopolozhnomu result than expected.
Advertising should be done professionally. Not sleduet in order to save to order advertising agencies randomly.
The risk of lack of demand for services may arise in connection with
1. advertising insufficient or excessive intensity,
the frequency of bringing it to the consumer;
2. incorrectly segmented advertising, that is not true raspredeleny different content commercials mezhdu different groups of potential buyers;
3. selected are not the most effective for a particular segmenta market or for a specific group of consumers formy advertising.
External causes of risk unclaimed services, as a rule, are not directly dependent on the activity gostinitsy, although in some cases, such a relationship exists. For example, due to poor workflow uvedomlenie consumer's readiness hotel predpriyatiya fulfill his request sent late in rezultate consumers refused to purchase the ordered services.
This situation often occurs in hotels with turisticheskimi firms. Hotels forget that strict deadlines require advance booking travel companies to inform customers about the tours nomernogo fund category and luxury hotels priobreteniya moment. Agencies having experience low performing distsipliny from the hotel (when not met the application for the ordered number fund category), often the target of litigation with customers, dissatisfied with them otnosheniem hotels.
For lack of demand for services previously ordered gostinichnyh causes unstable economic situation, in particular the growth of inflation (which reduces the buying-tive of the population), as well as inflationary ozhidaniya.
It is necessary to take into account the political instability. In izbezhanie risk opportunities should be carefully examined and analizirovat situation in the regions and countries fact-finding tions and potential consumers of hotel services.
The demographic factor also affects the risk nevostrebovannosti service hotels.
Risks of non-fulfillment of commercial contracts (kontraktov). Numerous and varied business relationships between hotels and consumers of their services are mediated zaklyucheniem economic contracts in accordance with the legislation grazhdanskim. Economic activities baziruetsya on transactions, the timely fulfillment of which farm-yuschimi partners and consumers is an important usloviem stable operation of the hotel.
Practice shows that in the field, enterprise services in many of the risks of improper execution of contracts partners, their insolvency. For external cause poyavleniya risk now be attributed primarily nesprognoziruemuyu non-payment of business partners.
Failure to meet financial obligations of business partners can be a determining cause bankrotstva hotels. According to statistics, the number of unprofitable-governmental enterprises in the economy as a whole and has risen sharply in the services sector in recent years.
Risks related to business agreements (contracts) as pokazyvaet analysis of the conclusion and execution of dogovorov, they include the following types:
1. The risk of failure of a business partner to conclude a contract
after negotiations. It occurs neobhodimosti changes preconditions contract and sluchae grade. This risk occurs both because of the possibility of "switching" partner on konkuriruyuschie hotel enterprises that can offer the best conditions of the transaction, or simply to be more responsive and ready to issue the order placement, have a more active and professional intermediaries, as well as due to the deterioration market conditions for the partner that makes for him a deal on a previously agreed price unprofitable or unreal to perform.
To reduce the risk in this situation, the hotel should be a letter of intent, which is determined by the period within which the Contracting Parties may make the necessary changes, and indicates the size of the liability in the case of refusal to sign the contract.
The risk of concluding agreements on the terms of the hotel, other than the most appropriate.
The risk of entering into a contractual relationship with neplatezhesposobnymi partners. -
To avoid such losses, businesses should consider very carefully analyze the solvency predpolagaemyh partners.
4. The risk of delay implementation partners subcontractors tekuschih contractual obligations, which may lead proizvoditelya hotel product to losses expressed violation delivery schedules, works partnerami. Delays in the implementation of its contractual partners obyazatelstv can occur both on their own fault or the fault of their counterparties.
Risk of injury or damage to third parties, which vklyuchaet a risk of environmental pollution and the risk of prichineniya moral and material damage to citizens. Hotel Danny risk can be reduced by ogovarivaniya kontrakte in terms of compensation for moral or other damage to citizens (ie. E. To provide for the mutual participation of the customer's specific work and its producer). In addition, if the environmental damage can be caused proizvoditelem these works through the fault of its employees, in labor contracts of employees should specify the conditions of such damages.
The risk of contracting volumes on the current snabzheniya partners with inflated claims on gostinits services.
So, instead of the real needs of the travel agency 100 seats, prinimaya into account the holiday season and the potential demand for the services of hotels, book with 150 seats. Before the arrival of the group of seats refuses.
The risks of increased competition. The causes of economic activity in protsesse risk of increased competition are many hotels, but here are the key to which you should pay attention in the first place:
the leak of confidential information or the fault of the hotel sotrudnikov, either as a result of industrial shpionazha undertaken by competitors;
inadequate marketing policy, ie nepravilny range of markets and incomplete or incorrect informatsiya competitor..;
slow introduction of innovations compared to konkurentami due to lack of necessary funds for provedeniya of scientific research, the introduction of new tech-nologies, the development of production of new high-quality ikonkurentnyh services;
unscrupulous competitors that use konkurentnoy fight any methods;
appearance of the hotel market producers,
similar services that can meet the demand potrebiteley;
the emergence of new companies and competitors in addition to the above, there are other prichiny affecting the level of competition.
Enterprise managers in the organization of activities should hozyaystvennoy
The risks of unforeseen costs and lower revenues.
The risk of unexpected costs primarily arises in the case of an increase in market prices for resursy (services), acquired in the course of production activities, above the target level due to:
errors in the analysis and forecasting of conditions on
changes in pricing policies resursov suppliers with which the manufacturer of hotel services zaklyucheny long-term contracts providing for vozmozhnost price review;
reducing the number of suppliers from which gostinitsa can choose the most cost-effective suppliers.
The same group of risk includes the risk of additional vyplat for the urgency of works and supplies, replacement outstanding contractors and partners with which ho-tural relationships in the production process can be interrupted deyatelnosti. The occurrence of this risk svyazano with a sharp appreciation of the orders that the company urgently must be placed in alternative postavschikov and contractors, in the case if its counterparty and partnery do not fulfill their obligations or perform them on-time and quality violations .
The risk of the need for payment of fines and court costs, arbitration occurs in the case of:
pollution of the hotel environment, and therefore will have to pay fines;
damage to life and health of workers roctinitsy, hotel product to consumers, to the public;
implementation of hotel services rendered violations of requirements of the standards;
the emergence of a liability, which assumes the hotel for its obligations to customers, especially those commitments, which the manufacturer of hotel services can not perform on time due to internal or external causes (failure to comply with the obligations of its partners and contractors);
impossibility of settlement of certain claims of the hotel to the counterparties on a bilateral basis, in connection with something it has to submit a formal complaint before the arbitral tribunal or a court of general jurisdiction. In this situation gostinitsa claimant to a positive and final decision arbitration court should bear the costs of the trial. In the case of a positive decision for the plaintiff dannye costs may be reimbursed by the defendant.
This includes the risk of loss of profit as a result of the forced interruptions in production. Consequential loss arising from downtime is considered lost profits, costs associated with the liquidation of the consequences of the event that caused a break in proizvodstve and operating costs incurred by the hotel regardless of the continuing process of production or he is suspended. As a general rule, indirect loss is much higher than the direct losses associated with povrezhdeniem or destruction of property.
profit loss can occur as a result of the replacement of outdated equipment, introduction of new technology and tehnologii, and also because of the strikes and the result of other social and political factors.
In addition, the hotel may incur losses in connection with, the loss of monetary assets in securities as a result of exchange rate negativnogo own shares or as a result of bankruptcy, shares of which constitute the bulk of its "investment portfolio". Uroven reduce this risk can be by placing free cash aktivy in different directions, for example, not only in tsennye paper, but also on deposit accounts.
This group may include the risk of future povysheniya floating interest rate on a credit line provided by gostinitse, which is that if a long-term loan has a credit line terms, refinanced by loans that the lender of the hotel, in turn, It takes a third party (usually a large bank, banking group or state), and the interest rates on loans refinancing credit line uvelichivayutsya, the lender under the contract, as a rule, carries increased costs by a percentage.
1. Components of the resource potential of the holiday region?
2. Types of tourism?
3. Socio - economic preconditions of tourism development
4. Components of the resource potential of the holiday region?
5. Natural recreational resources and their evaluation.?
6. Socio - economic preconditions of tourism development
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