HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING: FORCASTING SUPPLY OF EMPLOYEES

Vocabulary 1

Using your dictionary, match up words in A to their synonyms in B.

A B

1. forecast	a) currently
2. to assess	b) record
3. particular	c) to collect
4. at present	d) to leave
5. to go on	e) probability
6. to employ	f) to continue
7. note	g) prediction
8. to ascertain	h) to move to
9. likelihood	i) to calculate
10. to proceed to	j) appropriate
11. to go away	k) to use
12. relocation	l) position
13. to compute	m) external
14. model	n) expert
15. post	o) to determine
16. outside	p) transition
17. specialist	q) round
18. to gather	r) trend
19. series	s) specific
20. information	t) simulation
21. tendency	u) available
22. obtainable	v) data
23. approximation	w) estimate
24. proper	x) to estimate

Pre-reading task

Work in small groups.

Now you are going to read about forecasting the supply of employees. What two predictions do you think it is based on?

Reading

Read text 5 quickly. Were your ideas about the predictions involved in forecasting the supply of employees correct?

TEXT 5

Forecasting supply of employees

Forecasting the supply of employees involves two predictions. The first estimates how many employees there would be in the organization in specific jobs if the human resource programs currently in place continue. As with forecasting demand, both quantitative and qualitative techniques can be used. The most-used quantitative technique is Markov Modelling, which uses historical records to determine the probabilities, in one year, of employees in a specific job either staying in that job, moving to another job in the company, or leaving the company. These are known as transition probabilities and are calculated for each job. By using these probabilities in computer simulations, planners can determine how many individuals should be in each position at any year in the future.

The second prediction is how many individuals in the external labour market would have the necessary skills for employment in the organization at a specific time in the future. As an example of using a qualitative forecasting technique, Diana Taylor could gather experts in a Delphi situation and collect several rounds of data concerning population trends, education levels of specific age groups, and the demand for employees by other companies. She could then use these data to estimate the number of individuals available in the external labour market. The results from both predictions will provide an estimate of the total supply of individuals with appropriate skills.

2. Comprehension check.

Read the text more carefully. Are the following statements true or false? Correct the false ones.

a) To forecast the supply of employees, one has to calculate transition probabilities for each position.

b) Transition probabilities are likely retirements in one year.

c) We can calculate transition probabilities with the help of Markov Modelling.

d) Qualitative techniques are used for estimating the external labour market.

e) The Delphi method is usually employed for measuring individual skills of those currently employed in the organization.

f) Proper assessments of the external labour market and the transition probabilities make it possible to forecast the total supply of employees.

Vocabulary 2

1. Match up the following Ukrainian words to their English equivalents. Use your dictionary if necessary.

a) voluntarily	h) sufficient	o) discrepancy	v) job search
b) to select	i) current	p) to train	w) to compensate
c) termination	j) similar	q) to recruit	x) difference
d) outplacement	k) costs	r) to increase	y) retirement
e) to reduce	l) opposite	s) to force	z) to face
f) to lay off	m) to compare	t) senior
g) growth	n) to suffice	u) to conclude

2. Complete the charts with the different parts of speech. Translate the obtained pairs of words into your mother language.

E.g. cost / cost – коштувати / ціна, вартість

Verb	Noun
	selection
terminate
	reduction
grow
cost	cost
	comparison
	sufficiency
recruit
	increase
force
	conclusion
	compensation
retire
face
Noun	Adjective
sufficiency
	current
similarity
	opposite
senior
	different

Date: 2015-01-02; view: 1085

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