Home Random Page


CATEGORIES:

BiologyChemistryConstructionCultureEcologyEconomyElectronicsFinanceGeographyHistoryInformaticsLawMathematicsMechanicsMedicineOtherPedagogyPhilosophyPhysicsPolicyPsychologySociologySportTourism






Forecasting Demand for Employees

 

Forecasting demand for employees involves predicting how many employees the firm will need in specific jobs in the future. There are two types of forecasting methods: quantitative and qualitative.

Quantitative Forecasting Methods. Quantitative methods, as you can probably guess, use statistical techniques. Two of the most often used techniques are the productivity index and regression analysis. The productivity index is the ratio of employees to unit of output. Returning to our hypothetical example, Diana goes through Hubert's records for the last ten years and calculates that each salesperson accounts for $85,000 in yearly sales. If she can find out the amount of sales in the strategic goal, Diana can determine the number of salespersons that will be needed. Regression analysis uses data about a number of variables that are correlated to predict sales and numbers of employees. In this case, Diana uses population of the area, number of competitors, economic strength of the community, and the number of students enrolled in the local building and trade school to determine the number of salespersons needed.

Qualitative Forecasting Methods. Qualitative forecasting methods rely primarily on the judgements of experts. These methods are used when planners cannot gather historical data to develop statistical forecasts or when they think that future business activities will be quite different from those of the past.

Quantitative forecasts usually assume that what has occurred in the past will continue in the future. For example, if one salesperson produced $85,000 in sales for the last five years, then this should happen in the next five. However, if more competitors start up, or the economy weakens significantly, or the firm introduces many different products, these forecasts will not be accurate. In such a case, moving to qualitative methods, planners consult experts in the business operation who have a good idea about the future environment of the business, and who can provide useful judgements. One technique for gathering information from these experts is through the Delphi method. Another is nominal grouping, which divides a large group into smaller ones, and then arranges the exchange of information among the groups.

Nominal Group Technique. This technique involves the use of a highly structured meeting agenda and restricts discussion or interpersonal communication during the decision-making process. The following steps occur in a nominal group:

1. Members meet as a group, but before any discussion takes place, each member independently writes down his or her ideas for possible problem solutions.

2. In round-robin[3] fashion, each member takes a turn presenting a single idea to the group. This continues until everyone’s ideas have been presented and recorded. No discussion of the ideas occurs until all ideas have been recorded for general viewing.

3. The group then engages in an open discussion of the ideas for the purpose of clarification and evaluation.



4. A secret written ballot is then taken, with each member individually and silently ranking the ideas in priority order. The idea that has the highest aggregate ranking becomes the adopted decision.

Delphi Group Technique. This method employs a written survey to gather expert opinions from a number of people without holding a group meeting. Delphi group participants never meet face to face. In fact, they may be located in different cities and never see each other. The following steps take place in a Delphi group:

1. The problem is identified, and members are asked to write down potential solutions through a series of carefully designed questionnaires.

2. Each member independently and anonymously completes the first questionnaire.

3. Results of the first questionnaire are compiled at a central location and then redistributed to the original respondents.

4. After reviewing the results, members are asked again for their solutions. This process usually triggers new solutions or causes amendments to the original position.

5. Steps 3 and 4 are repeated as often as necessary until a consensus is reached.

 

2. Write down the names of quantitative and qualitative methods that you can remember.

 

3. Comprehension check.

 

Read the text again more carefully. Complete the sentences with the appropriate ending, a, b, or c.

 

1. The productivity index is …

a. the indicator of improved production due to skilled employees.

b. a figure that shows the relationship between the output and the number of workers needed to produce it.

c. a number that indicates the dependence of production on workers’ skills.


2. Diana calculates that …

a. the annual sales figure per one salesperson in Hubert's store makes $85,000.

b. each salesperson in Hubert's store earns $85,000 annually.

c. each salesperson in Hubert's store gives an account of sales figures that make $85,000 yearly.

 

3. To determine the number of salespersons that will be needed, Diana has to …

a. correlate such variables as resident population, competitors, economic state of the people, and the number of students admitted to the local building and trade school.

b. find out the number of correlated variables that are essential for regression analysis.

c. use data about people living in the area, competitors’ strong points, business environment and students enrolled in the local building and trade school.

 

4. Qualitative forecasting methods can be used when …

a. no previous statistics are available to develop quantitative forecasts.

b. the strategic goal of future business activities is unspecified.

c. the past business activities are likely to continue in the future.

 

5. Quantitative forecasts may not be accurate if …

a. the company increases the number of employees.

b. the firm increases the output.

c. the business launches a lot of diverse products.

 

6. Qualitative methods are concerned with …

a. planning of business operations.

b. using information obtained by statistical methods.

c. collecting required data from the specialists.

 

7. Unlike nominal groups, Delphi group participants …

a. have to rank different ideas.

b. can feel free to speak their opinions with guaranteed anonymity.

c. are not asked to write down their judgements.

Discussion

Working in small groups, compare and contrast the nominal group technique and the Delphi group technique. Give your ideas about the advantages and disadvantages of these two techniques when they are employed in forecasting demand for employees.


UNIT 3

 


Date: 2015-01-02; view: 984


<== previous page | next page ==>
Vocabulary 1 | HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING: FORCASTING SUPPLY OF EMPLOYEES
doclecture.net - lectures - 2014-2024 year. Copyright infringement or personal data (0.007 sec.)