A Stalled Fight Against the Islamic State

Iraq will rival Syria for attention in the fourth quarter as the fight against the Islamic State stagnates amid a growing political crisis within Baghdad. Iraq is grappling with its new geopolitical reality: Not only has the country broken into sectarian pieces, it is broke financially, making it too weak to conduct policy independently. Competing political factions in Iraq will use this highly vulnerable phase to jockey for influence, using the threat of foreign influence, corruption and socio-economic stress to assert themselves and promote a new order. The emerging political challenges in Baghdad will consume more of Iran's attention as it works to preserve its own agents of influence, but they will not fundamentally change the fact that Iraq's fate is still a product of outside powers. Competing external pressures on a fragile and money-stricken government in Baghdad will only further complicate the slow-moving fight against the Islamic State, providing the jihadist group with additional room to probe the weaknesses of the Iraqi army in search of symbolic wins. Without any good options to manage this threat and unable to develop a reliable local ground force to lead this fight, the United States will remain largely reactive to the situation in Iraq while keeping options open to incrementally expand its military presence should Islamic State make more serious gains. At the invitation of Baghdad, Russia has the potential to carry out largely symbolic airstrikes in Iraq against the Islamic State to complicate the U.S. position in Baghdad, though Moscow will be very restrained when it comes to expanding its operations beyond Syria.

The more incapable Baghdad appears, the more the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will try to assert its claims to energy resources within its region at the expense of the central government and promote itself as a reliable ally of the United States. However, Iraqi Kurdistan will struggle to find buyers for its oil exports, especially when those exports routes are controlled by Turkey at a time when Ankara is militarily pursuing Kurdish rebels hiding out in Iraqi Kurdish territory. The KRG will also be grappling with an internal political crisis of its own. Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Massoud Barzani will likely be able to hold onto the presidency, but not without making concessions to his political rivals in the Kurdish parliament, making for a more divisive political landscape to be exploited by Turkey and Iran.

While working to preserve its influence in Iraq, Iran and its main proxy, Hezbollah, will also be busy committing forces to a ground offensive in Syria with Russian air support. Meanwhile, Iran will proceed apace with the implementation of its nuclear agreement with the West, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The internal Iranian debate over the nuclear agreement with the West will fuel the political jockeying ahead of Iran's parliamentary and Guardian Council elections early next year. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will try to use the promise of sanctions relief in the wake of the nuclear deal to promote a reformist platform. But he will face resistance from more hardline conservative elements and from the supreme leader, whose goal will be to maintain a balance among competing factions.

Date: 2016-04-22; view: 596