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Saudi Royal Stresses

In anticipation of additional Iranian crude coming on the market in the coming months, and with the understanding that U.S. crude producers remain highly adaptive to price fluctuations, Saudi Arabia will maintain OPEC policy of defending market share and competing on prices while avoiding cuts to production. Saudi Arabia will merit close attention in the coming months as internal stresses continue to grow in the kingdom. The country remains vulnerable to terrorist attacks, though the capabilities of jihadists operating in the kingdom remain limited and do not pose a direct threat to energy infrastructure. In the mountainous border areas with Yemen, Saudi Arabia will face a more serious military threat from Houthi rebels. At the same time, the Saudi-led coalition ground offensive on Sanaa will likely get bogged down in the mountains in the north. Meanwhile in Aden, the rift will continue to grow between Southern Resistance fighters and the government of President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi, limiting the extent to which Saudi Arabia can rely on Southern Resistance fighters to aid in the Sanaa offensive. Saudi Deputy Crown Prince — and second deputy prime minister and minister of defense — Mohammad bin Salman will absorb much of the blame and attention for Riyadh's challenges, though King Salman will be able to contain potential challenges from within the royal family.

 

Turkey's Messy Electoral Aftermath

Turkey is heading into another tumultuous quarter following an inconclusive election in June. Stratfor forecast that the Justice and Development Party (AKP) would face a significant challenge in holding onto its majority in parliament, especially as a peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party was bound to fall apart. As we said in the third quarter, growing security vulnerabilities and political instability would spell much darker days for Turkey as the year wore on. Going into the Nov. 1 election redo, the AKP is not positioned to regain a majority that could end the political impasse. Reluctant to share power, the ruling party could resort to more extreme measures to try to shape the vote, such as imposing emergency rule in Kurdish-dominated areas in the southeast, where violence can easily escalate. Another hung parliament is likely to result from the Nov. 1 election, further souring the economic climate at the same time the Turkish lira will be facing downward pressure from a strengthening dollar.

The Turkish ruling party will thus face two major dilemmas simultaneously this quarter: inconclusive electoral results and Moscow's challenge to Ankara's geopolitical ambition of carving out a sphere of influence in Syria. Even as Turkey still faces considerable constraints as it bolsters its military presence in northern Syria, it will be able to coordinate with the United States this quarter on a more intensive rebel operation against the Islamic State in Aleppo province west of the Euphrates. Turkey will try to use this operation to push further for a full-fledged "safe zone" and accompanying no-fly zone, which the United States will continue to resist. Turkey will nonetheless need to be watched closely for signs of military preparations toward the end of the quarter and early next year, especially as such an operation could be used as the constitutional basis to put off another election if coalition talks collapse. Turkey can also be expected to leverage European frustration over migrants to lobby support for its plans for a safe zone in Syria where refugee camps can be built. However, the Europeans will be especially wary of getting caught in Russian crossfire in Syria and will instead be more willing to strike a bargain with Turkey on visa liberalization.



 


Date: 2016-04-22; view: 629


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