B. The Rise of China

China is rising not only as a military power, which it was even during the Cold War, but also as an economic power. The World Bank estimates that China will become the world's largest economy by 2020. Its large and expanding domestic market has moderated the backlash from international public opinion of its brutal handling of the Tienanmen incident. Uncertainty about its foreign policy intentions combined with its actual and potential military and economic power make it a formidable regional force.6 China's military modernization is likely to enhance its military power, especially its power projection capability in the neighbouring waters. Freedom and safety of navigation in the strategic sea lanes of communications (SLOCs)in East Asia is a conditio sine qua non for the continuous economic prosperity of regional states whose energy supplies, trade and commerce pass through these international waterways. Whether growing Chinese power will be exercised in the absence of internal and external constraints remains debatable at this point.7 In addition, the uncertainty of US commitment to regional security and the absence of a settled regional order make the rise of China a serious challenge to regional security.

Uneven economic development within China and the risks of a derailed economic modernization programme have led its leaders to root political legitimacy in a new Chinese nationalism that transcends generational differences. Part of this new nationalism is its aggressive pursuit of national sovereignty on issues like territorial recovery as core elements of the nationalist agenda. Hence, there is the intensity in Chinese aspiration and action to establish national sovereignty over territories it considers its own and to recover territories detached from it by colonial powers in the past. This is manifested in the uncompromising approach to the particulars of the reversal of Hong Kong from Great Britain in 1997, averting Tibetan and Taiwanese independence even at the risk of the use of force, assertion of sovereignty and control over the disputed territories in the South China Sea, interest for the latter also having to do with the Chinese search for new energy sources, among others.8

Internal developments in China provide additional sources of uncertainty about China's future which could have important implications for its foreign policy behaviour.9 It remains unclear, for example, to what extent decentralization and the growing power of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) shaped the decision to occupy Mischief Reef in 1994-1995, a reef located within the Philippine-claimed Kalayaan Islands, or the holding of the large military exercises across the Taiwan Straits in March 1996 with clear regional security implications. Hence, instabilities caused by internal political and economic changes are likely to have external implications for the peace and security of the region.

Date: 2015-01-11; view: 763