Quantitative Analysis

Methodology

In order to assess risks is proposed to use following techniques:

1. the method of analogy (this method consists of comparing a similar project which has already be implemented with the current project. The company has experience in entering foreign markets, therefore, possible reveal the general relations according to the changes and use them in the current project);

2. the method of analysis of forecasts (means checking of expert opinions to make forecasts);

3. the method of scenario analysis (calculated possible "scenarios" of possible changes: a pessimistic scenario, the optimistic and the most probable);

4. the method of Monte Carlo simulation (identifies common risks and their impact on the final project economics);

5. the method of expert estimates (based on a survey of the group of experts).

Main methods that are proposed to implement:

• avoiding excessive risk activities;

• prevention or diversification;

• outsourcing;

• the formation of reserves;

• using information-gathering techniques (SWOT, interwiewing and Delphi).

Roles and responsibilities

Name	Responsibilities
Alexander Katorgin (Project Administrator)	Leads in the planning and development of the project; manages the project to scope; develop risk management strategy
Anna Votintseva (System Administrator)	Identifies risks that connected with: • IT system and database • technical strategy, policy and procedure • testing programs
Leo Likhachev (Supplier-side Project Manager)	Identifies risks that connected with: • the supplier-side of the budget • in communication paths between the project team and the supplier • financial reports (time/expenses)
Mila Orlova (Risks Experts) Roman Babanov Ekaterina Balan Lilia Khabibullina	Make research of the risks, data gathering, analysis, and documentation as outlined in the risk plan

Budgeting

Risk	Probability	Money
Disruption of project time, budget	0,9	720 000
Disruption of contract terms with a third party	0,7	560 000
The leak of confidential information	0,5	400 000
Fierce competition from oil Companies	0,3	240 000
Negative governmental reaction	0,1	80 000
TOTAL	2 000 000

Timing

Deadline implementation of strategies - 20/09/16. Duration of a project approximately 9 months

Scoring and interpretation

The Risk Identification Worksheet facilitates the categorization of individual project risks. Each risk element should be rated according to the following criteria. Ratings will be estimates based upon project knowledge at the time.

Probability

Project Impact

Exposure

Thresholds

The Project Manager will determine the appropriate threshold in which actions should be initiated. It will be considered EPMO best practice to provide an Agreed Action for each risk element that has a high Degree of Exposure.

Reporting formats

Position	Name	Risk	Reports	Controls	Acts
Project Manager	Alexander Katorgin	Disruption of project time, budget
Project Administrator	Anna Votintseva	Disruption of contract terms with a third party
System Administrator	Lev Likhachev	The leak of confidential information
Supplier-side Project Manager	Mila Orlova	Disruption of contract terms with a third party
Subject Matter Expert	Roman Babanov	Fierce competition from oil Companies Negative governmental reaction
Team Member	Lilia Khabibullina	Disruption of project time, budget
Team Member	Ekaterina Balan	Disruption of project time, budget

Tracking

Tracking of risk elements and activities should be documented in the Risk Management Worksheet. The revision history table within the document should be utilized to document changes and updates.

	Risk Score for a Specific Risk
Item	Probability	Risk Score = P x I
Disruption of project time, budget	0.90	0.05	0.09	0.18	0.36	0.72
The leak of confidential information	0.70	0.04	0.07	0.14	0.28	0.56
Disruption of contract terms with a third party	0.50	0.03	0.05	0.10	0.20	0.40
Fierce competition from oil companies	0.30	0.02	0.03	0.06	0.12	0.24
Negative governmental reaction	0.10	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.08
	0.05	0.10	0.20	0.40	0.80
Impact on an Objective (e.g. cost, time or scope) (Ratio Scale)

Quantitative Analysis

Date: 2015-12-24; view: 1025

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