An Israeli-Palestinian Impasse

Israel will undergo a political transition this year that will pull the government further to the right. Israel's greater intractability on policies toward the Palestinian territories will strain relations with Washington and further enflame tensions in the West Bank and Israel proper as militants resort to more resourceful tactics against Israeli targets and as Fatah's influence continues weakening in the West Bank. Israel will maintain a pre-emptive military posture and strike with impunity against targets in neighboring states when the need and opportunity arises.

Egypt's Government Faces Opposition, Jihadists

The military-backed government of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will try to consolidate its power this year. A key component of this process will be the March parliamentary elections. A fragmented Islamist and secularist landscape, along with skillful electoral engineering, will allow al-Sisi to realize a divided and thus pliable legislature. Disagreements over how much political space to cede to Islamists who do not oppose the government, such as the Salafist al-Nour Party, could limit the extent of the government's success. The government will still be dealing with protests from the Muslim Brotherhood, though those protests will remain largely contained. At the same time, Cairo will expend a great deal of energy trying to combat jihadist groups such as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis and Ajnad Misr both in Sinai and on the mainland.

Egyptian security forces will continue focusing on the Sinai and Nile Delta regions as they seek to contain domestic insurgent activity, though the country's long desert border with an increasingly chaotic Libya will also warrant Cairo's attention. Cairo will work with its Gulf backers and the recognized Libyan government in Tobruk to limit the threats emanating from eastern Libya. However, Egypt's involvement will fall short of direct military intervention: Cairo's participation in the Libyan conflict in 2015 likely will be limited to logistical support, weapons and ammunition, and coordination in air strikes.

Libya's Divisions Persist

Fragmentation will define Libya over the next year, with regional governments and the international community pursuing various and often competing strategies. The country has missed self-imposed deadlines for drafting a constitution and holding elections for a permanent government, and now Libya's transition has ground to a halt as competing factions of revolutionaries, Gadhafi-era figures and militias from various ideological and sectarian backgrounds vie for influence. Violence and insecurity will prevent Libya from reaching full oil production capacity, and strikes, protests and attacks will continue to cause swings and dips in overall output over the course of the year. However, the strategic value of Libyan oil supplies to international markets will diminish, especially as Gulf producers maintain production levels and output from other OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria expands or stabilizes.

The United States and its coalition partners will watch Libya closely for significant jihadist activity. So long as groups affiliated with al Qaeda or the Islamic State remain isolated within small pockets of Libya and do not begin to organize attacks against neighboring Algeria, Egypt or the European Union, there will be less pressure for outside forces to strike proactively against Libyan militants — a move that could further destabilize the country. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt likely will limit themselves to logistical support and air strikes in their ongoing support for forces allied to the internationally recognized national government in Tobruk.

There will be no clear or easy victories for the competing governments either in Tripoli or Tobruk; various parties are likely to express support for negotiations and enter talks, but neither lasting cease-fires nor a stable transition is expected in 2015. Any constitution written under the aegis of the government in Tobruk will not have national support, and if ratified it likely will prove temporary, extending Libya's political instability beyond 2015.

Date: 2016-04-22; view: 597