The Islamic State Under Strain

The Islamic State has risen to challenge al Qaeda as the leader of the global jihadist movement, but it will remain concentrated in the Iraq/Syria theater of operations. The group will find itself increasingly constrained by unreliable support networks and attacks on its logistic and financing networks. Although the Islamic State will retain its ability to carry out conventional and terrorist attacks in its existing areas of operation, the group will not be able to mass forces or significantly expand the territory under its control.

Even if other jihadist groups or grassroots jihadists from beyond Iraq and Syria take up the Islamic State banner, the group's capabilities are not likely to improve significantly. Given the Islamic State's focus on Iraq and Syria and its general lack of transnational terrorist tradecraft, a major shift that would lead to an appreciable spike in transnational terrorist attacks is unlikely. Moreover, jihadists in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, the Caucasus, Somalia and Africa's Sahel region are likely to remain under considerable military pressure this year. While assisting local ground forces in the fight against Islamic State, the United States will rely principally on air power to strike at jihadist targets in the region — primarily in Iraq and Syria but potentially elsewhere.

Baghdad's Web of Negotiations

Mobilizing local forces in Iraq and Syria to dislodge the Islamic State will be a slow and trying process. In Iraq, attempts to muster a national army to deal with the threat will be plagued by distrust among both Sunni and Kurds toward Baghdad. The Kurds will want to exchange security cooperation for energy rights, spurring calls for autonomy in Basra. The Sunnis, while assembling their own militias, will want to bargain for rights to energy resources in Kurdish-held disputed territories in exchange for security cooperation. The actions of less-disciplined Shiite militias operating in Sunni areas will run the risk of undermining political progress in these negotiations. Baghdad will limit how much it concedes to any of these groups as it tries to preserve central authority in Iraq while trying to deal with the more immediate issue of the Islamic State.

As Stratfor anticipated in 2014, Turkey drew a line at underwriting Kurdish independence in Iraq and has instead chosen to re-engage with Baghdad on an energy understanding with the Kurdistan Regional Government. Financial strain and the common threat of the Islamic State have driven the Kurdish authority in Arbil back to the negotiating table with Baghdad, which will allow increased oil output in the north and more exports through the north in 2015 to add to Iraq's overall production. However, with a number of core issues unresolved, including the status of disputed territories, this compromise remains vulnerable to disruption. Turkish-backed projects to develop and transport natural gas by pipeline from northern Iraq to Turkey will also stress the agreement between Baghdad and Arbil in the absence of a framework that stipulates which party will have the right to sell the natural gas.

Date: 2016-04-22; view: 725