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Its Marine Environment and Ecosystem Dynamics Influenced by Global ChangeWhite Sea Its Marine Environment and Ecosystem Dynamics Influenced by Global Change
Nikolai Filatov, Dmitry Pozdnyakov, Ola M. Johannessen, Lasse H. Pettersson and Leonid P. Bobylev
White Sea Its Marine Environment and Ecosystem Dynamics Influenced by Global Change
PPrraaxxiiss PPuubblliisshhiinngg Chichester, UK Professor Nikolai Filatov Professor Ola M. Johannessen Northern Water Problems Institute (NWPI) Founding Director Karelian Research Centre Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Russian Academy of Science Mohn-Sverdrup Center for Global Ocean Studies and Petrozavodsk Operational Oceanography Karelia Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen Russia Bergen Norway
Professor Dmitry Pozdnyakov Mr. Lasse Pettersson Dr Leonid P. Bobylev Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Director Bergen Nansen International Environmental and Norway and Remote Sensing Centre St. Petersburg Russia
SPRINGER-PRAXIS BOOKS IN GEOPHYSICAL SCIENCES SUBJECT ADVISORY EDITOR: Dr Philippe Blondel, C.Geol., F.G.S., Ph.D., M.Sc., Senior Scientist, Department of Physics, University of Bath, Bath, UK Published in association with the Nansen Group: NIERSC, St. Petersburg and NERSC, Bergen, Norway
ISBN 3-540-20541-1 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York
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Contents
Preface............................................................................................................................................. xi List of Contributors..................................................................................................................... xv Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... xix List of figures.............................................................................................................................. xxi List of tables............................................................................................................................. xxxi Abbreviations............................................................................................................................ xxxv Introduction............................................................................................................................. xxxix 1 Geography of the White Sea and its watershed (A.V. Litvinenko, N.N. Filatov, and V.A. Volkov)........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Main features of the White Sea........................................................................... 1 1.2 Bottom topography.................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Physical geography of the watershed............................................................... 4 1.4 Physical geography of the administrative units............................................ 5 1.4.1 Arkhangelsk Oblast.................................................................................. 7 1.4.2 The Murmansk Oblast............................................................................ 9 1.4.3 Republic of Karelia................................................................................ 11 2 White Sea watershed hydrology and anthropogenic impact (V.V. Ivanov and V.A. Brizgalo)............................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Hydrological features and anthropogenic influence on the catchment 15 2.2 Water balance elements and water resources............................................. 22 2.3 Variability in the hydrological and chemical regimes of river systems 28 2.4 Main features of pollutant transport via river runoff................................... 31 2.4.1 Mineral forms of nitrogen and phosphorus.................................... 31 2.4.2 Pollutants...................................................................................................... 36 2.5 Anthropogenic impacts on estuaries......................................................................... 47 3 Climate of the White Sea catchment and scenarios of climate and river runoff changes (N.N. Filatov, L.E. Nazarova, Ju A. Salo, and A.V. Tolstikov)....................................................................................................................... 53 3.1 Climate.......................................................................................................................... 53 3.2 Climatic scenarios and estimation of river runoff changes........................ 67 3.2.1 Climatic scenarios........................................................................................ 67 3.2.2 Estimation of change in river runoff to the White Sea . . 70 4 Oceanographic regime (N.N. Filatov, D.V. Pozdnyakov, Ju.I. Ingebeikin, R.E. Zdorovenov, V.V. Melentyev, A.V. Tolstikov, and L.H. Pettersson) 73 4.1 Transparency and optical characteristics......................................................... 73 4.2 Circulation patterns and currents in the sea................................................... 77 4.3 Water masses and water exchange with the Barents Sea........................... 82 4.4 Fronts and frontal zones...................................................................................... 90 4.4.1 River runoff fronts................................................................................... 90 4.4.2 Tidal fronts................................................................................................ 92 4.4.3 Upwelling fronts........................................................................................... 93 4.4.4 The front between the White and Barents Sea waters. . . 93 4.4.5 Features of marginal filters (barrier zones) in the bays of the White Sea............................................................................................ 94 4.5 Variability of water temperature and currents................................................. 96 4.5.1 Large-scale variability.................................................................................. 96 4.5.2 Mesoscale and synoptic variability.................................................. 101 4.6 Model study of currents and mass transport processes in some bays and estuaries................................................................................................. 107 4.6.1 A brief description of the model for simulating estuarine currents 108 4.6.2 Onezhskiy Bay........................................................................................... 110 4.6.3 Estuary of the Kem River................................................................... 112 4.6.4 Turbulent diffusion of a conservative pollutant in the coastal zone of the Onezhskiy Bay and the Kem River . 114 4.7 Sea level variations and tides............................................................................ 118 4.7.1 Large-scale sea level fluctuations............................................................ 120 4.7.2 Synoptic variability.................................................................................... 128 4.7.3 Mesoscale sea level variability........................................................... 138 4.8 Ice regime and wintertime hydrology of the White Sea............................. 144 5 Aquatic ecosystem profile (P.R. Makarevich and Ju V. Krasnov).......................... 155 5.1 Phytoplankton............................................................................................................ 155 5.2 Zooplankton............................................................................................................... 160 5.3 Sea birds of the White Sea: Concise characterization of the contemporary status 167
6 Satellite oceanography: New results (D.V. Pozdnyakov, L.H. Pettersson, O.M. Johannessen, P. Bobylev, V.V. Melentyev, N.N. Filatov, V.I. Chernook, A.N. Filatov, A.V. Korosov, A.N. Stuliy, and M.W. Miles) 179 6.1 Optical remote sensing 179 6.1.1 Background................................................................................................. 179 6.1.2 A new water quality retrieval algorithm for case II waters 181 6.1.2 Advanced tool performance verification and seasonal variations of White Sea CPA concentrations as revealed by SeaWiFS data.................................................................................... 193 6.2 Patterns of thermo-hydrodynamic processes and fields from NOAA AVHRR data........................................................................................... 205 6.2.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 205 6.2.2 Data and methods................................................................................. 206 6.2.3 Results of NOAA satellite data analysis........................................ 211 6.2.4 Discussion and main findings............................................................ 213 6.3 Satellite SAR and passive microwave remote sensing................................ 217 6.3.1 Satellite SAR monitoring of ice cover parameters....................... 217 6.3.2 SAR studies of the White Sea ice cover as a habitat of ice-associated marine mammals............................................................... 221 6.4 Studies of the White Sea ice cover using satellite passive microwave sensors..................................................................................................... 234 6.4.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 234 6.4.2 Data analysis.......................................................................................... 235 6.5 Conclusions................................................................................................................ 237 7 Economy of the White Sea watershed area (A. Yu Terzhevik, A.V. Litvinenko, P.V. Druzhinin, and N.N. Filatov).................................................. 241 7.1 Natural resources...................................................................................................... 241 7.1.1 Mineral resources....................................................................................... 241 7.1.2 Forest resources...................................................................................... 244 7.1.3 Agriculture.................................................................................................. 246 7.1.4 Fuel and energy resources................................................................... 247 7.2 Demography............................................................................................................... 248 7.2.1 Population structure.................................................................................. 249 7.2.2 Changes in population.............................................................................. 250 7.2.3 Natural population change....................................................................... 250 7.2.4 Life expectancy.......................................................................................... 253 7.3 Economic indicators................................................................................................. 254 7.3.1 Gross Regional Product....................................................................... 255 7.3.2 Inflation....................................................................................................... 260 7.3.3 Industrial production................................................................................ 260 7.3.4 Agriculture.................................................................................................. 264 7.3.5 Services and trade.................................................................................. 265 7.3.6 Monetary income....................................................................................... 265 7.4 Sectors and branches of the economy............................................................. 270 7.4.1 Arkhangelsk Oblast................................................................................... 274 7.4.2 Murmansk Oblast...................................................................................... 277 7.4.3 Republic of Karelia............................................................................... 283 7.5 Investments................................................................................................................ 287 7.5.1 Foreign investment..................................................................................... 287 7.5.2 Domestic investments................................................................................ 287 7.6 Identification of socio-economic indices and integration of the relevant data into a database 288 7.7 Identification and substantiation of the most probable scenarios for industrial development in the White Sea Basin.................................... 293 7.7.1 Background................................................................................................. 293 7.7.2 The outlook for future industrial developments in the White Sea Basin region 296 7.7.3 Specific features of regional forecasting based on the scenario approach 298 7.7.4 Scenarios of probable White Sea Basin industrial development 301 8 Geographic Information Systems for managing the ecosystem and living resources of the White Sea (V.V. Rastoskuev, V.K. Donchenko, A.N. Filatov, and E.V. Shalina)..................................................................................... 305 8.1 System structure........................................................................................................ 305 8.2 Software for the formation of the data warehouse...................................... 308 8.3 Formation of digital maps................................................................................. 309 8.4 Data analysis using the ArcView GIS............................................................ 311 8.5 Analysis of remote sensing data using the IDRISI GIS........................... 313 8.6 Information system for decision-making support........................................ 321 8.7 Conclusions................................................................................................................ 326 9 Water quality assessment and the problem of marine ecosystem stability (V.V. Denisov and A.V. Shavykin)................................................................................... 329 9.1 Background................................................................................................................ 329 9.2 Assessment of the White Sea ecosystem......................................................... 331 9.3 Conclusion.................................................................................................................. 335 10 Numerical simulations of the White Sea hydrodynamics and marine ecosystem (I.L. Bashmachnikov, O.M. Johannessen, L.H. Pettersson, G. Evensen, I.A. Neelov, O.P. Savchuk, A.V. Leonov, S. Kaitala, T. Stipa, H. Kuosa, and N.N. Filatov)......................................................................... 337 10.1 NERSC-HYCOM hydrodynamic model....................................................... 337 10.1.1 Model overview........................................................................................... 337 10.1.2 The HYCOM implementation for the White Sea....................... 342 10.1.3 Model experiments..................................................................................... 348 10.1.4 Conclusions................................................................................................. 366 10.2 FIMR 1-D ecosystem model.............................................................................. 368 10.2.1 Model overview........................................................................................... 368 10.2.2 Physical oceanography basics for the ecosystem model of the White Sea.......................................................................................... 369 10.2.3 Ecosystem model....................................................................................... 373 10.2.4 Model validation........................................................................................ 377 10.3 FIMR model II: Toward a size structured mixotrophic ecosystem model 378 10.3.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 378 10.3.2 Model equations........................................................................................ 379 10.3.3 Results......................................................................................................... 381 10.3.4 Conclusions................................................................................................. 382 10.4 IO RAS - model transformations of organogenic substances in the White Sea ecosystem 384 10.4.1 Introduction................................................................................................ 384 10.4.2 Model description...................................................................................... 385 10.4.3 Input data for the model...................................................................... 388 10.4.4 Modeling results and their analysis................................................. 396 10.4.5 Conclusions................................................................................................. 408 10.5 3-D IO RAS-AARI coupled hydrodynamic-biochemical model . 410 10.5.1 Formulation of the model................................................................... 410 10.5.2 Set-up of the numerical experiments................................................ 419 10.5.3 Hydrodynamic simulations....................................................................... 420 10.5.4 Control simulations of the White Sea nutrient dynamics . 429 10.5.5 Scenario analysis of the possible response of White Sea eutrophication to climate and nutrient loading changes. . 434 10.6 Response of the White Sea ecosystem to future climate change and feedback to the socio-economic conditions....................................... 440 10.7 Conclusions............................................................................................................ 441 Afterword..................................................................................................................................... 443 References................................................................................................................................... 445 Index............................................................................................................................................. 463
Preface
The White Sea, morphologically a shelf marine basin, is located on the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, to which it is connected through the Barents Sea and is essentially a mediterranean sea, being semi-enclosed by the northern European landmass. The White Sea is of significant interest for research of both a scientific and applied nature, owing to its geographical situation, its interactions with the Barents Sea waters, its complex and seasonally ice-covered estuarine and marine environment and ecosytem, as well as its rich natural resources - all under the influence of regional and global change. This book addresses the contemporary problems of the White Sea and its basin, with special emphasis on the interactions between the marine and socio-economic environments. To investigate the impacts of regional and global change, field obser- vations, remote sensing, numerical modeling, and geographic information system (GIS) technologies are used. This book is indeed the first attempt to apply a quantitative, multidisciplinary approach to the assessment of those changes occurring presently and those antici- pated in the future to dynamic relationships between the regional socio-economic dimension, global change, and marine ecology. The results presented in this book arise from multiple sources, viz. archival data, contemporary publications and reports, as well as information products obtained using new methods such as satellite remote sensing, GIS, numerical model simulations, and elements of systems analysis. It is this multi-method, multidisciplinary approach that distin- guishes this collective work from the previous publications on the White Sea (e.g., Ruchor et al., 2000; Berger et al., 2001). To achieve these aims, this book is co-authored by a large team of experts in mathematics, oceanography, sea ice hydrobiology, hydrochemistry, aquatic ecology, economics, and sociology. The book is organized in ten thematic chapters. Chapter 1 addresses a range of fundamental aspects related to the geographical position of the White Sea basin.
White Sea on the European map
This chapter characterizes the White Sea as a whole including its principal regions. Morphometric and bottom relief specific features are discussed as related to deter- mining the oceanographic regime in the White Sea. A new digital model of the White Sea bathymetry is presented - a model that has been developed to achieve a high spatial resolution (1-2 km required for precise numerical modeling of the inherent in- water processes). Knowledge of the physical geography of the White Sea and its catchment is important for understanding the essential features of the White Sea basin (both its marine and terrestrial environments). Therefore, special attention is devoted to an analysis of the physical and economic characteristics not only of the White Sea but also of the neighboring regions, namely the Republic of Karelia and the Archangelsk and Murmansk oblasts . Chapter 2 is dedicated to the watershed of the White Sea. The discussion here is mostly focused upon water and nutrient input into the White Sea by river discharge. In addition, a range of issues related to the socio-economic status of the coastal area is presented and analyzed for a period covering the second part of the last century. The analyses are performed to trace down the rates of release of pollutants (nutrients primarily) either directly into the sea or via terrestrial pathways. Chapter 3 is devoted to the regional climate, bringing together the past and present climatic data and analyzing the tendencies of climate variability and change within the White Sea basin. A key factor responsible for the climate formation and variability in the region is atmospheric circulation over the Preface xiii
Atlantic/European sector of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on the analyses of long time series of climate data, numerical simulations were performed in order to explore the options of future change to the regional climate against the background of global climate change scenarios. Possible climate and water balance changes in the studied region were further evaluated for the period 2000-2050 (using two scenarios of CO2 change: with and without aerosols). Numerical experiments with the ECHAM4 model indicate significant future changes in the climate and hydrological regime of the White Sea. The main thrust of this chapter is to suggest the impact of future changes in regional climate and hydrological regime upon the White Sea basin-associated economy. Chapter 4 discusses the issues of physical oceanography of the White Sea, based upon the most reliable and recently updated data on water temperature and salinity throughout the year. Circulation patterns and currents in the sea and main shallow bays are also discussed in terms of the influence of atmospheric effects and tides. Special attention is paid to such hydrodynamic features as frontal zones and upwelling. Also discussed are the hydro-optical properties of the White Sea, as these are closely related to spatial and temporal variations of concentrations of color-producing agents (e.g., suspended minerals, dissolved organic matter, and phytoplankton chlorophyll), which are in turn a consequence of both hydrodynamic activity in the White Sea and the inputs from runoff. A hydro-optical model is presented and justified for simulating the aquatic conditions in the White Sea. Additionally, extensive data on specific features of sea-level variations of various natures (including tides) occurring through a range of scales in the White Sea are provided and analyzed. Finally, the ice regime in the White Sea is described based on well-documented evidence obtained from dedicated field experiments and satellite images. Chapter 5 examines the White Sea ecosystem including phytoplankton, bacterio- plankton, zooplankton, sea birds, and mammals. Special emphasis is placed on interactions within the lower part of the trophic chain. Area-specific empirical relationships characterizing the hydrobiont life cycles are given, which is important for further analyses of their responses to changing ambient conditions. Chapter 6 is dedicated to the use of remote sensing methods for oceanographical investigations. Satellite sensors operating in the visible, infrared, and microwave spectral regions are examined and exemplified. For the first time for the White Sea, remote sensing data from the satellite ocean-color sensor SeaWiFS are used to identify temporal and spatial distributions of the indigenous phytoplankton, suspended minerals, and dissolved organic matter for all vegetation seasons. A new water-quality retrieval algorithm for the White Sea has been developed and validated against concurrent in situ measurements. Results of surveillance of spatial and temporal variations of water quality parameters and sea surface temperature, as well as surface manifestations of frontal zones, upwelling events, currents, tides, sea level and sea ice variability are presented. Also used for the characterization of the White Sea, are two decades of satellite passive microwave remote sensing data. For the period 1978-1999 these data have revealed a 16% decrease in sea ice concentration, or "' 8% per decade. It is important that the
remotely sensed data provided additional evidence that the dynamics of sea ice concentration in the White Sea is in a transitory phase, and is thought to lead to changes in the atmospheric conditions in the region. The chapter also illustrates the feasibility of synthetic aperture radar data to document not only the state of ice cover in the White Sea, but also the dependence of habitats of ice-associated mammals on the state of ice cover throughout the year. Chapter 7 addresses the socio-economic aspects of the White Sea basin. Char- acterized are mineral, forestry, fuel/energy resources, as well as demographic features within the White Sea watershed area. Economy-based indicators of the regions development are discussed in detail. Possible changes of these indices under a variety of scenarios are shown for the development of Russia in general and the regions neighboring the White Sea. Chapter 8 expands on the problem of multidisciplinary data assimilation, creation of value-added digital information products and development of a GIS tailored for the White Sea basin as a prototype of a tool for management and decision-making. Chapter 9 addresses the most consequential aspects of water pollution and the associated impact on the marine ecosystem. This chapter provides quantitative information on the background sources of White Sea water pollution, as well as the system s reaction to the ongoing degradation of water quality parameters. It is shown that, even if in the case of a revival of the local economic activity and the ensuing regional gross output, the input of industrial and municipal pollutants will not increase more than 10-30%. The assessments made here indicate that this can hardly lead to appreciable changes in the White Sea ecosystem, as such changes would remain within the limits of natural variability. Thus, this multidisciplinary approach suggests that for future scenarios of socio-economic development, the White Sea ecosystem would not be drastically altered. Chapter 10 presents several thermodynamic and ecosystem models for the White Sea. These numerical models are intended to assess the impact of possible climatic and socio-economic changes on the thermo-hydrodynamics of the White Sea, as well as its marine chemical and biological status. Three 3-D prognostic models (High- Resolution Isopycnic Ocean Model (HYCOM), the IO RAS model developed at the Institute of Oceanology, and the AARI-NIERSC model developed at the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute and the Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre, St. Petersburg, Russia) were exploited to this end. In addition, models developed at the Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research, Helsinki, were implemented. Descriptions of the models are followed by ample examples of their realization for past, present, and future forecasts. The latter are based on the above- mentioned scenarios of the regional climate change and anthropogenic nutrient loading. In the Afterword, the present state-of-the-art and future developments in the area of nature conservation under conditions of stable socio-economic progress are summarized.
Date: 2016-03-03; view: 510
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