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Social Unrest Expected in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka begins the year with the ouster of strongman former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. His successor, Maithripala Sirisena, vows to embark on an ambitious political and economic restructuring of the island, including courting Indian and Western support and balancing Chinese investment.

Social unrest and protests will are likely in weeks and months following the election, but the core of support behind the Rajapaksa administration — the economic elite, mainstream Buddhist religious and social groups, and the majority of the island's ethnic Sinhalese population — still opposes the rising political clout of the island's ethnic and religious minorities. Sirisena will have to expand his base of mainstream Sinhalese supporters, including the military, in order to push through a new constitution and move away from Sri Lanka's parliamentary system. Sirisena and his supporters have vowed to dissolve parliament and write a new constitution eliminating the role of president, but the new president leads an unruly coalition of competing ethnic, political and religious minorities that will prove difficult to organize into a stable coalition. Tamils and Sinhalese groups from the island's central regions are likely to push for a federal style government under the new constitution, creating rifts between hardline backers of the Rajapaksa administration and Sirisena and the minority groups who helped vote the new president into office.

Clashes between hardline Buddhist elements and Muslims and Hindus could increase, creating the possibility for retaliatory or insurgent attacks. The military will continue its presence in northern Sri Lanka, and while a return to the levels of fighting that took place on the island prior to the 2009 cease-fire are unlikely, Sri Lanka faces an elevated risk of social and political unrest in the year to come.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Post-NATO Cooperation

The coalition government comprised of the factions of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and CEO Abdullah Abdullah will likely endure this year, but it will come under intense strain, especially from Ahmadzai's decision to negotiate with the Taliban and work with Pakistan. In anticipation of a drawdown of NATO forces and the resulting vacuum that would allow Pakistani Taliban rebels to operate east of the Durand Line, Islamabad and Kabul will be compelled to cooperate on military matters and negotiate with the Afghan Taliban movement.

In Pakistan, the military's battles against jihadists will take precedence, and the state will intensify security operations throughout the country. Social backlash from these policies can be expected from conservative social forces. In addition, political turmoil created by an opposition movement led by Imran Khan will force the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to seek negotiations with Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf. The political unrest will constrain Islamabad's ability to make headway in its plans to improve the economy primarily by reviving the power and energy sectors.

Sub-Saharan Africa


Date: 2016-04-22; view: 691


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