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The Ukraine Crisis Has Regional Reverberations

The effects of the standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine will continue to spill over across the former Soviet periphery.

Amid continuing efforts by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to get closer to the West, Russia on Jan. 1 launched the Eurasian Union with Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan is scheduled to join mid-year. This initiative will increase economic and security integration between Russia and these countries. The other Eurasian Union member countries will feel the negative effects of Russia's economic crisis due to their dependence on Russia and their integration with Russia in areas such as trade, remittances and currency pegs. These economic weaknesses will make protests and social unrest more likely. Belarus in particular will seek to build closer economic ties with Europe, but it will also maintain a strong military and security relationship with Russia.

The Baltic states will increase their efforts to diversify their energy supplies away from Russia, primarily with regional pipeline connections and Lithuania's liquefied natural gas import terminal. This greater independence from Russian energy supplies will give them more room to maneuver politically regarding Moscow. NATO will maintain its commitments to the Baltics in terms of semi-permanent troop rotations and exercises, but these will not expand significantly. Pro-Russian demonstrations and activities will worry the Baltic governments, but they will be more of an irritant than a serious threat to stability.

In the Caucasus, Georgia will see an increase in political instability as the ruling Georgian Dream party experiences greater internal divisions, though this will not offset the country's broader EU and NATO integration drive. With Russia more focused on domestic and economic issues and thus less likely to intervene in skirmishes over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan will try to challenge the status quo of its conflict with Armenia with more military activity on the front line. Although increased hostilities on the border can be expected, a full-scale military conflict drawing in larger neighbors is unlikely.

Gradually rising tensions have been a common feature in Central Asia for the past few years, though 2015 could see these tensions spike. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both of which have seen significant political and security turmoil in recent years, will hold parliamentary elections this year. Perhaps more important, Uzbekistan will hold presidential elections in March 2015, just as the country is in the middle of a shaky succession process. All three countries will experience greater economic pressures as remittances from migrants in Russia decline, further contributing to the potential for political and security volatility in the region. Further adding to Central Asia's security challenges is the risk of greater militancy as a result of the U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan and the potential return of militants fighting in the Syria/Iraq theater.

On the energy front, the cancellation of South Stream will make finding replacement projects a priority for both Russia and the Europeans as they seek to circumvent the troublesome Ukrainian transit route. Russia will build closer energy ties with Turkey. The Europeans will court Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to participate in new projects on the Southern Corridor route — though Turkmenistan, still mindful of Russian interests, is not likely to participate in any such projects this year.



Europe


Date: 2016-04-22; view: 628


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