Former Soviet Union

Russia's Ongoing Competition with the West

The Ukrainian crisis and the ensuing standoff between Russia and the West was the result of a collision between two geopolitical imperatives: Russia's imperative to maintain buffer space in its former Soviet periphery — particularly Ukraine — to feel secure and project power, and the United States' imperative to prevent the rise of a hegemon in Eurasia.

In 2015, the tension between Russia and the West will persist but de-escalate. Russia began the year at a disadvantage; there is no major military move Moscow can make without triggering a larger, and potentially crippling, response from the West. Moreover, because of Russia's increasingly vulnerable economy, Russian President Vladimir Putin will have to consider the state's economic survival, as well as stability within the Kremlin, in any decision he makes in trying to protect Russian interests in the former Soviet periphery. Russia will thus avoid making a major military push into Ukraine, opting instead to keep the conflict in eastern Ukraine frozen with the potential for the separatist territories to resume economic ties and political contacts with the rest of the country. Russia also will avoid any major military actions to undermine the pro-Western governments of Moldova and Georgia, but will continue using opposition groups, protests and its existing military presence in their breakaway territories to maintain pressure on these countries.

At the same time, the West will likely refrain from taking action that risks pushing Russia – a massive, nuclear-armed country – over the edge. The Europeans in particular do not want to see Russia collapse, given the potential impact to their own economic and security standing. Barring any major miscalculations on either side, the European Union is unlikely to increase meaningful sanctions against Russia this year. The current European sanctions in place will automatically expire throughout the year, and extending them would require approval from all 28 EU member countries. Thus, an easing is more likely than an extension or intensification of the current sanctions. Russia will follow this timeline carefully and moderate its behavior accordingly to ensure it has enough European support to neutralize the sanctions, even as more hardline states, such as Poland and the Baltics, fight to sustain this economic pressure.

On the security front, NATO is unlikely to push into Central and Eastern Europe beyond the rotational exercises and ballistic missile defense deployments already planned. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will not be brought into the military alliance, although the United States could increase bilateral security assistance, including potential weapons sales, to these countries. The United States also has the option of leveraging strategic weapons systems, such as long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, in its military posturing, to the detriment of existing Cold War-era treaties. However, such threats will remain rhetorical, as Europe will resist the increasing deployment of such weapons systems on the continent.

Date: 2016-04-22; view: 722