The Limits of Proclamation

The "solemn proclamation" has very strong symbolic implications but dubious actual consequences. Even if the Catalan government ignores the ruling by the Constitutional Court, the solemn proclamation will not have any tangible implications. As a result, the proclamation will probably be followed by a period of legal and institutional ambiguity. And as long as Catalonia does not make any moves that visibly change its relationship with Spain, Madrid will not broaden the dispute out of the legal and financial realm.

Rajoy's government is betting that legal and financial pressure will be enough to make the Catalan government fall — and pro-independence forces are already feeling that pressure. The largest party at the regional parliament, Together for Yes, depends on support from a small left-wing party, the Popular Unity Candidacy (known as the CUP), to reappoint Artur Mas as regional president. But the CUP has said it will not support another term by Mas, and both parties are currently negotiating alternative candidates for the regional presidency. Spanish media have also reported that Together for Yes, which is an alliance of conservative and progressive forces, is divided internally over the Nov. 11 vote.

Spain's political situation will get even more tempestuous as the end of the year approaches because general elections are scheduled for Dec. 20. According to opinion polls, no single party will be able to govern alone; they will have to form coalitions. The four most popular parties oppose independence but have different strategies to deal with the Catalan question. (The left wing Podemos party, for example, said it would consider authorizing a legal referendum on Catalan independence.) So, even if Catalonia does not actually claim independence, the issue will not subside and will be a priority for whatever coalition emerges from the general elections.

In Spain, Political Crisis Hurts Catalan Independence

Summary

Spain's political fragmentation is hurting the Catalan independence movement. Public support for pro-independence parties is weakening as voters turn to new parties such as the centrist Ciudadanos and left-wing Podemos, which criticize the establishment but oppose independence.

The Catalan government wants to use the regional elections scheduled for Sept. 27 to advance the independence process. However, the new political parties' electoral growth will make reaching a majority in the Catalan Parliament harder for the pro-independence camp, weakening the secessionist movement in the region.

Analysis

Spain's political landscape continues to fragment, and voters are split into four groups of similar size. The country's two mainstream parties, the ruling conservative Popular Party and the center-left Socialist Workers' Party, have levels of public support almost equal to that of the two newcomers, the left-wing Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos. According to an April 12 Metroscopia opinion poll published by El Pais, only 3 percentage points separate the main contenders for Spain's general elections, which will be held in November or December.

Post-electoral party alliances will probably be difficult because no party will be in a position to form a government alone, a result of Spain's economic crisis and the traditional parties' corruption scandals. Spain will see an early manifestation of this trend on May 24, when 13 of the country's 17 autonomous communities and all of its municipalities will hold elections. The alliances and agreements these parties reach will set the tone for the general elections later in the year.

Date: 2016-04-22; view: 595