Russia Tries to Sow a Trans-Atlantic Divide

Russia's standoff with the United States will grow more complicated this quarter as Moscow tries to soften the Europeans on sanctions over Ukraine even as it escalates its military involvement in Syria. Moscow's maneuvers are designed in part to draw the United States into a strategic dialogue ultimately yielding a bargain with Washington to pull back on sanctions and set limits on U.S. involvement in the Russian periphery. But the United States will only tacitly engage with Russia. Washington will be more compelled to sustain economic pressure against Russia while trying to reinforce U.S. security guarantees to allies in Russia's near abroad.

Russia will be using the fourth quarter to create enough divisions within the European camp to give Moscow a chance of preventing a unanimous European vote to extend sanctions in January. Russia will only need to sway a handful of European countries to allow the sanctions to expire early next year; it will lobby Germany, France and Italy particularly strongly. The closer the Europeans draw to Moscow, the more Russia will be able to drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies as gaps widen between those willing to bargain with Moscow and those trying to maintain a hardline stance, such as Poland and the Baltic states.

Keeping relative calm in eastern Ukraine this quarter will be essential to Russia's strategy with the Europeans. Russia will use its influence over separatists in eastern Ukraine to pull back heavy weaponry from the frontlines and to delay elections in the separatist regions in exchange for political concessions from Kiev on constitutional changes. Kiev will not be able to make meaningful compromises on eastern Ukraine's autonomy without risking a collapse of the government, especially ahead of Oct. 25 local elections. The Ukrainian government could come under greater political pressure following those elections, with potential shake-ups in the Cabinet or reshuffling within the ruling coalition. Strong opposition from far right and ultranationalist groups will further constrain Kiev as it tries to recognize and empower the separatist territories. Ukraine's loan from Russia for $3 billion is due in December. This deadline will play into the negotiation process between Kiev and Moscow as Ukraine looks to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for assistance and as Russia attempts to use a potential default to complicate further IMF assistance to Ukraine.

The United States will provide enough financial and security backing to Kiev to prevent the government from caving to Russian demands, and it will continue to encourage the Europeans to maintain their sanctions next year. Even as Russia appears cooperative on Ukraine this quarter, it will still have the means to increase military pressure if its negotiations with the Europeans break down under U.S. pressure.

Relations between NATO and Russia will be tense over the next few months in spite of the calm in Ukraine. NATO still has room to increase training missions in Ukraine under the auspice of rebuilding the Ukrainian military while continuing its permanent rotation of forces in Central Europe. Polish rhetoric against Russia and appeals for Western security commitments will be on the rise during Poland's election season. Sweden and Finland, meanwhile, will draw closer to NATO but will stop short of joining it. Russia will counter NATO activity in its periphery through military exercises and by pressing Belarus to follow through on a long-pending deal to host a Russian military air base.

Russia's expanded role in Syria will further strain relations with Turkey. Tensions with Ankara have been rising because of Russia's improved relationship with Azerbaijan and because of stalled talks on a natural gas agreement — a prerequisite for Turkey to sign onto TurkStream, the proposed gas pipeline that would benefit Turkey while enabling Russia to circumvent its existing route to Europe via Ukraine. Turkey may try to work out an understanding with Russia over Turkey's desire to establish a safe zone for refugees in northern Syria, but Moscow will likely prioritize its relationship with Iran this quarter and scuttle Turkey's plans.

Date: 2016-04-22; view: 629