Uncertainties

As we near the end of the 20th century, there still remain obstacles and uncertainties that pose challenges for us to overcome. A few of them are highlighted below.

The first and foremost of the uncertainties lying ahead stems from the very nature of the transition, that is moving from one mode of world order to another. The past models and conventional paradigms that used to rule the world order have become obsolete. And there exists no alternative to enable us to predict the coming world. Neither is there a clear indication at the moment that there will soon appear an alternative ideology and model of development to solve global problems. In other words, the post-capitalist world is uncertain.

A half-century long confrontation of the two competing systems - capitalism vs. socialism - has ended with capitalism winning the competition for the time being. But the end of the socialist system did not automatically resolve "the crisis of capitalism". With the advent of the Uruguay Round and the WTO system, the world is said to be moving towards a market system, and a borderless world economy. However, while the rise of economism tends to find a market solution for every problem, it is uncertain whether the market is capable of transcending national differences. Although global economic cooperation is a dominant future trend, forces of economic nationalism, protectionist policies and fragmentation of markets are also on the rise. Consequently, gaps among the advanced, developing and underdeveloped countries in wealth, technology and communication are not likely to be narrowed soon. Conflicts attendant to this will keep the world from moving smoothly towards an integrated social and economic order.

Indeed, capitalism did not succeed in protecting society from the corruption and collaboration of power, and from abuse of the market by some businesses and multinational corporations. Some would even suggest that the breakdown of the Communist regimes attests to a clear victory of market capitalism over planned socialism. History, however, offers a contrasting explanation. Only the economic system - be it capitalism or socialism - that helps democracy and human rights to thrive can survive the test of history and civilization. Market and planned economies which propelled democracy prospered, but ones that rejected democracy were doomed to fail. The question then is: Can the world economy, with its turning to marketization on a global scale, save the future of democracy?

Finally, there is also uncertainty whether the current state system can effectively deal with growing global problems. Nations today are too small and weak to solve the "big problems". The world and national issues which individual states have to face are growing ever larger and more complex, while the power and resources of states to solve them have become weaker and smaller. Simply stated, states have too much to do, but too little power and resources to do them. Authoritarianism and militaristic rule that remain as a dominant mode of governance in some Asian states further complicate the problem. We also see that political separatism, division and fragmentation are not likely to disappear soon, as seen in the aftermath of the dissolved former USSR and Yugoslavia.

In short, conflicting trends continue to coexist in the post-Cold War world. Conflicting forces operating simultaneously include: globalism vs. nationalism, integration vs. fragmentation, globalization vs. national stratification and democracy vs. authoritarian tendencies. How these conflicting trends will shape the world in the next century is still largely unknown, and uncertain. This challenge calls for a new regional and global leadership. Herein lies the need for prescriptive analysis and normative action strategy. The analysis and normative propositions expounded below are a step towards this goal in the context of security in North-East Asia.

Date: 2015-01-11; view: 836