Conclusion

In order to test the argument that there is a worldwide process of regionalization taking the shape of a new regionalism, it might have been simpler to choose another example than Asia-Pacific. East Asian regionalism is often described as de facto regionalism, whereas regionalization is supposed to take place de jure in Europe and North America. This contrast may be due to differences in political culture, but an alternative explanation could lie in the fact that the inter-state relations in East Asia are rather tense and unsettled (albeit not openly hostile). Thus a growing maturity of the regional security complex may lead to a more formal regionalism, just as the normalization of the relations among the countries in South-East Asia has been accompanied by a more formal and predictable regional arrangement than presently seems to be possible in East Asia. This having been said, it is obvious that on other levels than the inter-state level, there has been an impressive process of regionalization. The future of the region is either very black - in case the potential conflicts are translated into war - or very bright - if the degree of interdependence proves to be a point of convergence of interests where every state gets a stake in stable peace. In some of the South-East Asian states this condition must apply also to various domestic groups, a condition which makes the optimistic scenario somewhat unrealistic. Quite a few states may, due to domestic problems, have fewer resources to devote to regional cooperation in the future. The two giants China and Japan face different problems but the problems as such cannot be easily dismissed. China is an old empire becoming a modern region-state, but the level of regionness is far from sufficient to maintain a central legitimate authority throughout the region ( i. e. the previous empire). In the case of Japan there is also a lack of clear perception of regional policy, not because of isolation but too much dependence on one of the former superpowers. Thus there is not only a lack of formal regionalism (which is less serious), but a lack of policy makers with region-wide authority, i.e. hegemony. In spite of that there are many reasons, particularly in the areas of development and conflict management, to believe that the global process of regionalization will have a deep impact also on East Asia and South-East Asia in the future. The NICs are facing changes in those objective conditions which originally made them into NICs. Their strategy in the 1990s will probably be betting on the domestic market, preferably a regional market. The regional framework is still, however, in a flux.

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Note

1. This paper is based on a lecture held at the Shonan Global Seminar 1996 and outlines a theoretical and conceptual framework for the comparative analysis of the new wave of regionalism, here called "the new regionalism", and applies this framework to the case of East Asia. The framework is the outcome of the now concluded UNU/WIDER project on The New Regionalism and Its Implications for Peace and Development. I am grateful for comments from Takashi Inoguchi, who chaired the Shonan session, and Joakim Öjendal, Padrigu.

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Date: 2015-01-11; view: 809