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Although it is too early to assess the effectiveness of Customs Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, the organization has disadvantages, experts believe. "No one can assess the activity of the union because it has not shown itself," Risk Assessment Group Kazakhstan Director Dosym Satpayev told Trend News over the phone from Astana.

The public in Kazakhstan say the Customs Union, which has been operating for three months, damages the country's economy and sovereignty. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev received numerous letters of complaint. The authors wrote that the country's participation in the union could force the public to demand the government's resignation, even the president's, Deutsche Welle reported.

An appeal to the president to cancel the union was signed by opposition, media, cultural and public organization representatives. According to experts, it is too late to assess the union's activity objectively.

International Institute for Political Expertise Director Evgeny Minchenko told Trend News over the phone that the union's efficiency will only be clear one year of operation. Moreover, some rules will only come into force in summer.

According to Satpayev, the Customs Code indicates duties according to which concrete changes will or will not be made. "For this reason, I think it is more logical to evaluate the union's activity next year," Minchenko said.

According to Natalya Kharitonova, the coordinator of the Joint Eurasian Expert Network, it is both too early or too late to condemn the government's decision to join the union, Deutsche Welle reported.

It is too early because only an initial phase of economic integration has taken place over the past three months, as the partners become used to working in real conditions. However, it is also too late because all three countries have been working in their own ways and on their own schedules for the past 20 years since independence. Moreover, until Jan. 1, 2010, the union was also seen as a political draft for an "Eurasian EU."

However, we can already speak about some positive and negative sides of the Union, experts said.

Minchenko said that there are some negative effects. But there are more positive points in the Customs Union. "Another thing is that time is required for this positive effect to appear. But I think the cumulative effect of a large market as a whole justifies the minor negative points, which Kazakhstan's media points out, political analyst said.

One of the major unresolved issues is whether it is possible to establish economic relations Kazakhstan - Belarus, because now the economic relations of the two countries are poorly developed, Minchenko said. Satpayev said that one can agree with opponents of the Customs Union that the development of this project was held without public participation.

"Many people have set for the fact that the Customs Union will work from January 1. Everything will be good. Small and medium businesses will operate. Kazakhstan will receive 170-million-market, as markets of Russia and Belarus are taken into account," Satpayev said. But, many details of the organization have not been worked out even at the governmental level, he said.

The question of so-called "shuttle traders" can be an example. It is not a secret that Kazakhstan has a very large number of people lived at the expense of "shuttle" trade with China and Turkey, Satpayev said. Now, after the establishment of the Customs Union, customs duties will be changed. They will increase on Chinese goods, while at the same time there will be restrictions on the import of goods for sale in Kazakhstan, the expert said. "There is a question. If these people lose their jobs, then where they will go and what they will do. In fact, this is a very large percentage of Kazakhstan's population. It does not deal with those who brought the goods. It deals with those who sold it, " Satpayev said. He said that it is one example of that the Customs Union may have not only advantages, but disadvantages.

Moreover, the question arises also in the fact that unfortunately, Kazakhstan is not ready to export anything except raw materials to the markets of Russia and Belarus, political analyst said.

"Many suspect that the Customs Union is most beneficial for Russia because it has access to well paying market of Kazakhstan, although I personally think that establishment of the Customs Union for Russia has another task - to limit the expansion of China," the expert said. He said that China is now more actively "hilling Central beds, making huge investments to the countries of Central Asia.

Date: 2016-01-14; view: 697