Cities and upcoming changes

Cities of the future — how will European cities adapt to new climate conditions?

Topics: Climate change Urban environment Environmental scenarios

Published: Jul 27, 2009 Last modified: Apr 13, 2011

Cities and towns are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and will need to find innovative ways to adapt. Now is the time to start rethinking urban design and management — yet few have taken concrete action.

In 2008, Barcelona ordered huge quantities of water delivered by tanker to serve its population and tourists. In 2003, the summer heat wave killed 14 800 people in France, 18 000 in Italy, and altogether around 52 000 across Europe. In 2002, photos of Dresden and other German cities under water showed the effects of extreme flooding along the River Elbe.

With a changing climate, extreme events like these are predicted to occur more frequently. Two lines of action are needed globally to keep the future impacts of climate change within manageable boundaries. First, large cuts in greenhouse gas emissions must be made to stabilise temperature rise at below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Above this threshold, there is a risk that the impacts will be extremely difficult for contemporary societies to cope with. However, even if the 2 °C target is achieved, there will still be residual impacts throughout this century. The second line of action therefore involves putting in place adaptive measures.

Cities have an important role to play in both areas. They are already making substantial efforts to cut emissions, improve their energy efficiency and step up the use of renewable energy (see Urban frontrunners — cities and the fight against global warming). But in adaptation, we have seen much less progress to date.

Cities and upcoming changes

With their high population density and physical structure, cities and towns are extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The threats vary across Europe:

· Many coastal cities face a serious risk of flooding as sea levels are predicted to rise by 18–59 cm by 2100 (see IPCC's 2007 report). At the recent climate change research conference in Copenhagen, scientists presented even more dismal projections, with a 1–1.5 m increase in sea level by 2100.

· Droughts and heat waves are mostly projected for the southern parts of Europe. However, the threat also exists elsewhere in Europe, as shown by the Paris heat waves in recent years.

It is not only a matter of location, however. The physical characteristics and design of a city can also lessen or worsen the impact. Think for instance of the 'urban heat island' effect, which is caused by differences in urban density and vegetation cover. Another example is the degree of soil sealing, which determines the potential for water infiltration after heavy rainfall.

Unless action is taken now, some cities will suffer considerably, both in terms of population and environment, with significant economic implications. In some cases, this may also aggravate social inequalities, as the poor might live in climatically less-favourable areas and not have the resources to adapt their housing. Climate change will also exacerbate other existing urban problems such as low air quality and poor water supply.

Investing now in mitigation and adaptation will help to avoid huge costs later. Some cities already see this as a wider opportunity for creating a better future. Better urban planning will improve quality of life across the board and create new employment opportunities by enhancing the market for new technologies and green architecture.

Date: 2015-12-17; view: 792