Jiemian Yang, President, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

Strengthening existing international institutions is essential to implementing true global governance. More often than not, institutions like the UN, WTO, IMF and G-20 appear too slow and ineffectual to tackle the world's most pressing problems. It is time that their guiding principles were earnestly implemented and existing frameworks properly exploited. Rather than issue more declarations, they must aim to produce more concrete results, especially in the areas of promoting a global economic recovery and helping to resolve the debt crises in the eurozone. In the coming years, the G-20 will have to show the world that it is capable of evolving into a more effective and accountable institution. Many are also watching to see if the UN can assume role in dealing with the flash-point issues around the world.

A related challenge is that the international community lacks the necessary consensus to work out concepts, norms, and approaches in addressing myriad issues ranging from nuclear security to the growing influence of social media. For one thing, major powers are often reluctant to engage less prominent stakeholders, making it difficult to forge common visions and joint efforts. In addition, the much-advocated "networked governance" among state actors and various non-state actors is making slow progress because most state bureaucracies, out of self consideration and systemic inertia, still prefer formal institutions centered on themselves. As a consequence, new mindsets and functioning mechanisms that are keys to global governance are hard to develop.

The third challenge involves harnessing regional efforts into common action on the global level. Discouraged by the stalemate of global governance building, many countries and regions are now turning to regional and sub-regional integration, which explains why we are seeing more regional and sub-regional free-trade agreements. If such a trend cannot be reversed in a timely fashion, then there will be no global governance in its real sense.

Despite the unprecedented challenges facing the global community in the second decade of the twenty-first century, the world should not be dispirited. The upcoming year promises fresh political and economic momentum as new leaders settle in and people around the world continue to seek more peace, development, and cooperation.

Igor Yurgens, Chairman, Institute of Contemporary Development

The international community must confront a complex set of security, ecological, and sociological challenges in the coming years. We are at a real crossroads, and must choose between sustainability and further decline with drastic consequences.

Security Risks

The continued deterioration in the Middle East challenges the principles of global governance and their efficacy in the near future. The region is wrestling with a number of issues, including the autonomous actions of emerging powers, the rise of non-state actors, and the proliferation of large-scale civil wars. The tactical interests of key players preclude common ground for decisions that are strategically vital for all sides and risk opening a Pandora's Box of nuclear proliferation problems with dramatic implications for global security.

The absence of adequate capabilities for resolving these problems threatens to unleash a "domino effect." Also, even with the progress being made in other parts of the world, the inability of the international community to cope with this region's challenges threaten to undermine global governance.

The course of events is precipitating. Next year will most likely be a turning point in the Syrian crisis. The further strain around a likelihood of conflict with Iran along with growing internal challenges in other regional countries will likely also heat up the international agenda.

Ecological Risks

Scientists have identified nine planetary boundaries that are essential for human life and should not be crossed. They estimate that we have already pushed past three, including climate change, nitrogen loadings, and the rate of biodiversity loss. The other six--ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone, aerosol loadings, freshwater use, land use changes, and chemical pollution--also appear to be approaching their tipping points.

Sociological Risks

High measures of income inequality around the world are strongly correlated with dangerous social trends in all societies. In turn, greater equality of income correlates with better social indicators across the range. These observations are based on analysis of U.S. and global developments [Note: From research by British academics R. Wilkinson and K. Pickett in The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better, London, Allen Lane, 2009].

The data has covered physical and mental health, educational performance, child well-being, trust and community life and social mobility, teenage births, obesity, drug abuse, violence and imprisonment. Even the privileged in countries with income inequality suffer from higher societal problems than their peers in more equal societies.

These risks must be dealt with head on in the new year. They will continue to challenge global governance and its ability to provide stability in the world, but the nature of these risks also shows the limitations of national governments. Some of these issues should be discussed in the course of the preparation of the next summit of G-20 in Saint-Petersburg in September 2013.

Date: 2015-12-11; view: 897