The main trends and prospects of MBC in the economic crisis

In today's economy it is very difficult to businesses operate without credit lines, which allow you to quickly complete the construction of the detention of funding, to stand idle periods when products or services are temporarily not in demand. Many recognize the awesome, but many businesses, particularly banks, whose services just enjoyed each of us, and they need credit lines. In fact, the inter-bank credit is a fairly short-term financing, which not violate the terms of the deal with customers and profitable to crank high finance. Interbank loan market is quite large and it can turn into trillions of rubles a year. And he appeared quite by accident.
Once upon a time in our great country is well flourished state species of property, which implies a constant and stable sponsorship. Today, each turning, as he wants and some banks have great pleasure to bring in capital to increase revenue and beyond. Quite often, almost on the verge of bankruptcy, financial institutions can not restore its solvency in the most natural way.
Often to the cash resources of interbank lending banks seek to avoid losing their status and maintain the image of a very solvent institutions. It is fairly obvious that the small banks, thanks to the special opening of correspondent accounts, and what are the main elements of the provision of short-term financing, and help them to establish the mutually beneficial cooperation and within the region to make a profit.
The crisis that started in the summer of 2007, mortgage lending in the United States, quickly covered the entire financial system. The amount of funds associated with subprime mortgages (subprime), is $ 500 billion Although significant amount, it is still low compared to the 31 trillion. losses or stock exchange capitalization of 60 trillion. U.S. owned American households. The crisis came as a huge scale, for losses related to subprime, instead of being evenly distributed across many portfolios were concentrated on the balance sheets of banks. The latter were involved in high-yield structured derivative financial instruments (derivatives). In addition, banks are securitized loans issued by them to remove them from their balance sheets, and thus pass the associated risks to investors.
This mechanism allows the bank to evade the requirements and rules of prudential supervision, to create an environment of euphoria, and led to an underestimation of risk. When the subprime crisis broke out, there was a block of interbank relations and there was mistrust between the operators of the financial market. This development has required states to develop plans for financial rescue, the collapse of which pose a threat to the real economy. However, despite these plans, provision of financial systems and especially banks remained very vulnerable. The increase in capital of banks (recapitalization) that saved them from collapse, did not provide them with additional resources to finance the economy.
Interbank lending market is one of the most important sources of short-term borrowing for credit institutions experiencing temporary liquidity problems. It is quite natural that during the recession interbank role in maintaining the stability of the banking system in particular is greatly increased.
Overall, from January 2001 to June 2009, the volume of interbank loans in the Russian market grew from 104.7 billion rubles. to 2.314 trillion rubles., or 22.1 times. The average annual growth for the period was 44.5%. Growth, as we see, is very significant. For comparison, during the same period, the volume of all other loans (both corporate and retail) in Russia increased by 21.1 times, that is slightly less. Thus, the annual growth of loans to corporate and retail customers, for eight and a half years has averaged 43.8%, or 0.7 percentage points lower than similar data on the growth portfolio of interbank loans.
However, in contrast to other segments of the interbank lending market is growing more volatile, since the volume of loans issued here depends on both the short-term liquidity needs, recurrent credited with banks, and the availability of temporary free funds from the creditor banks.
With the start of the recession in the Russian market interbank role in stabilizing the banking system increased substantially. This explains the fact that from 1 June 2008 to 1 June 2009, the volume of inter-bank loans grew by 44.5%, while the total amount of corporate and retail loans - only 16.0%. As you can see, the volume of inter-bank lending grew in this period, almost three times faster.
Obviously, this was due to the liquidity problems that have arisen during the period of economic and financial difficulties, which contributed to a sharp increase in the share of interbank loans in the loan portfolio of banks.
However, in the period from 1 January 2001 to 1 January 2008, the market is the opposite trend: the share of interbank loans in the total loan portfolio of banks decreased from 11.5 to 6.4%, which is more than 5%. This indicates that during the eight years of the liquidity situation in the banking sector has gradually improved, which allows banks to reduce the amount of borrowing in the interbank market. The share of inter-bank loans in total loans from five banks before the recession was less (although the absolute volume of loans and the volume of inter-bank loans, this group was the undisputed leader) than in the other groups of banks, with the exception of the smallest. Beginning of the economic crisis and the crisis of credit (unsecured loans to the Bank of Russia, the Russian Ministry of Finance auctions, designed for the big banks, etc.) has led to an increase in the share of interbank loans in the total loans in the five largest banks in more than two times (as January 1, 2009) - up to 13%.
However, by January 2009, when the situation in the credit market has somewhat stabilized, the share of interbank loans of all banks decreased to 12%, and the five major banks - to 10.6%. A decline in the share of interbank loans in total loans and the banks was holding by assets 21-50 seats. However, other groups of banks in the share of interbank loans in the loan portfolio in the first five months of 2009 has increased. The leader of the share of interbank loans in the loan portfolio of the banks were holding by assets 6-20 places - to 13.7%.
If we look at the share of different groups of banks in the aggregate portfolio of interbank loans of all banks, the figure changes the next follows. From 1 January 2001 to 1 January 2008, the share of the five largest banks - depending on the liquidity situation in the market - ranged from 25 to 35% of all loans of interbank loans.
However, with the credit crisis to the top five banks taken over 52% of the interbank market, while the share of interbank loans to other banks, was significantly reduced. However, on the expansion of the circle of large banks involved in obtaining credit crisis, by June 1 of this year, the share of industry in the portfolio of interbank loans in five banks declined to 45.0%, while the banks holding by assets 6 - 20 places, this percentage increased from 15.8 to 23.6%.
Slight increase in the share of inter-bank lending in the first five months of 2009, and there was a group of banks engaged by assets 201-1000 place. Overall, however, from January 1, 2008 to June 1, 2009 the market share in the interbank lending from banks by assets holding 21-50 seats, declined to 1.3 times, the banks holding 51-200 places - 1.95 times, the banks holding 201-1000 places - 3.4 times, the banks holding 1001-1311 places - 5 times. Thus, with the exception of the top twenty banks, all other groups of banks in the last year and a half have had to reduce their share in the total volume of inter-bank loans. The smaller the value of assets at the average bank, the greater reduced the extent of his participation as a creditor in the inter-bank lending.
Important role in the competitiveness of the bank in the interbank market is not only the cost of its credit and the terms on which he is willing to provide, but also the amount of credit that he is able to give a loan to another bank. According to this index, of course, the top five largest banks. So, here you can see how much of interbank loans issued an average of one bank in each group of credit institutions.
The most in nine years succeeded in increasing its average portfolio of five leading banks - 38.3 times. However, even the smallest banks average portfolio of interbank loans for the period increased by 4 times. However, if you compare the average portfolio growth indices interbank loans across different banks to the same period for all banks, only five of the largest banks, this figure was higher than the industry-wide index, and well in advance. Thus, in early 2001, the average portfolio of interbank loans in the group of the five largest banks was 2.33 times more than the banks concerned by assets 6-20 places, in early 2009, he was already above 9.9 times. However, with the expansion of the circle of large banks receiving credit crisis, as early as June 1, the average portfolio of interbank loans in five banks higher than the same portfolio of banks holding by assets 6-20 place, only 5.7 times.
It is quite natural that market participants are interested in what will be the volume of interbank loans in the coming months. To answer this question, let us take as an independent variable "volume of interbank loans with a lag of one month," and predicted the dependent variable - "the volume of interbank loans in the current month." As a result, we obtain the following equation VAR (1):

Y0 = 1,0231 x X-1 (1)

where Y0 - the volume of interbank loans in the current month; X-1 - the volume of interbank loans with a lag of one month.
Substantive interpretation of this equation is the following: an increase of 1 million rubles. volume of interbank loans in the last month, boosted the volume of interbank loans in the current month to 1 million rubles. and 23.1 thousand rubles. Trend, built on the basis of the above equation, was stable with a coefficient of determination equal to 0.989, meaning that 98.9% of the variations of evidence is explained by this trend. Because this equation autoregressive coefficient of X is greater than 1, it indicates the stationarity obtained deviations from the forecast, increasing the quality of forecasting. Nevertheless, the stock (deviation from the forecast) may experience the so-called "perturbation" due to external shocks. As a result, for example, as of February 1, 2008 (Table 2.1), the deviation from the forecast issued by the actual amount of interbank loans exceeded 44%, but in most cases, the deviation does not exceed ± 7-10%.

Table 2.1 - Growth of interbank lending in 2008-2009 and forecast up to January 1, 2010

It is estimated that the volume of interbank loans to January 1, 2010 will increase to 2,715,255 million rubles., An increase of 8.5% compared to June 1 of the current year (the latest data of the Bank of Russia, available at the time of writing). It is quite natural that this prediction is probabilistic in nature, but because its implementation depends on the preservation of the current trend in the market.
Incidentally, interbank loans and lead to negative results. A striking example is the arising two years ago, the global crisis that has virtually paralyzed the economy in our country. Most banks, it is not having the necessary financial aid, gladly took the cheap loans abroad and then to open multiple credit lines for large organizations. The sudden cessation of interbank relations instantly led to disastrous results. World stock market immediately paralyzed, and the outcome of the financial deficit, we are seeing even now.
Interbank lending market is one of the most important sources of short-term borrowing for credit institutions experiencing temporary liquidity problems. It is quite natural that in times of economic downturn role in maintaining the stability of interbank banking system is particularly strong increases.
Operations conducted in the interbank market, covering two main segments - a market of currency transactions (Forex market, Spot, Swap) and operations on the money market (interbank deposits, certificates of deposit, commercial paper). The daily turnover of the international inter-bank foreign exchange market, according to the Bank for International Settlements, is over U.S. $ 3 trillion. He grew rapidly in recent years, but the financial crisis has hit the inter-bank market, there are pretty much on a relationship of trust between banks.
The main problem of the interbank market - impairment assessments on banks, lower credit ratings and bank bailouts. Because of the crisis of confidence in the interbank market, many credit lines were practically closed, almost ended mutual crediting banks significantly decreased flow of money between financial institutions.
Today features providing money banks have made monetary authorities (central banks), but how far should extend their guarantees for risky surgery market agents?
After all, at the heart of the modern financial system based on the principle of risk assessment, and when the risks covered by the state, the main principles are distorted risk-taking - the principles of the functioning of credit in the banking system.
What happened as a result of the crisis of confidence? There was a lack of liquidity and significantly - at times - have fallen turnover in the interbank market. Banks closed limits actually resume them, and central banks were the largest creditors of commercial banks through repos and loans secured.
According to most analysts, the reason for the problems with liquidity in the monetary and financial markets is quite simple. Foreign investors may invest in emerging financial markets by resources, denominated in dollars, euros and yen. Accordingly, in these currencies were formed various pools of liquidity central banks, national funds, which include Russian funds. These foreign resources, which are essential to fund operations in emerging markets, translated into local currency. And when there was a crisis of liquidity and tightened credit, when there was the snap of the money supply in the U.S. markets, investors began to withdraw funds from the national financial markets around the world.
One of the problems that emerged in the crisis - the adequacy of reference rates. For example, are tied to LIBOR, as a rule, many financial products - loans, securities with floating interest rates, and others. Some banks deliberately understate the LIBOR rate in order to make the cost of funding for yourself below. But the market need a real benchmark interest rate, its real index to avoid any questions about the representativeness of the interest rate during the financial crisis. Part of the spread is considered in relation to the rate of LIBOR, but may be considered in different ways, taking as a basis for the twelve-month, three-month LIBOR rate or yield US treasuries. If many of the spreads on short obligations are considered in relation to the rate of LIBOR, and LIBOR itself does not reflect the real value of money, the situation is even more complicated and difficult to understand what the value of money is at stake.
LIBOR rate is calculated on transactions in the London market, but, for example, U.S. banks need a rate in its market. Therefore, some U.S. banks have to use an alternative rate LIBOR, which expects an international brokerage firm ICAP. Russian banks to the Russian currency also has its own rate - MosPrime. The central bank recently announced that it will probably be mostly guided by it. MosPrime - is the basis for fixing rates on lending products and leveraging resources, this reference rate on ruble loans. It is published on the website of the CBR. This rate has been recently approved by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association and included in the ISDA Definitions (a document that describes the rate for all currencies in the world, in all markets and how to calculate them).
Since the interbank market plummeted turnovers and bad credit lines are restored, then, according to most credit analysts, a full recovery of this market will take time - months, if not years. Experts discuss the issues need to change the regulation. The interbank market was poorly regulated, it is mainly based on self-regulate all kinds of codes, rules of engagement and mutual agreements. But now came the time when you need a more serious government regulation of this segment.
We can not say to increase the role of money brokers. But it is - not a broker on the stock market, not brokers, and brokers interdiler category, ie money broker, connecting the buyers and sellers of financial instruments. Lack of credit lines as well as distrust of banks to each other contribute to increasing the role of money brokers, which are more adequately assess the risks of lending.
Previous years financial resources concentrated in the largest banks with state participation. This led to a distortion of both interest rates and the money supply model from the Central Bank. Medium and small banks in need of money for lending to the direct performance of its main task - to invest in the real economy. Most of the money, as already noted, was focused on the accounts of the major banks. And earlier flow of resources was weak, and now it has declined significantly.
Thus, we can conclude that the development of the interbank market need changes in tax legislation. In a crisis situation, public authorities must be persuaded of the need to introduce such a change in the tax regime that will allow the interbank market to recover and continue operations. In addition, existing technology and infrastructure of the MBC are currently at a low level, and do not expect the formation of a single development of the money market, which is an important objective of the Bank of Russia and the urgent need of the participants. Currently, the market for interbank small, but there is a tendency to an increase in the volume of Russian financial markets in general and in particular the interbank market. In this regard, the necessary condition for the development of the market is to increase its workability. As a guide serves the European market is organized by IBC, which functions on the basis of e-MID, which is now the most technologically advanced electronic interbank market and demonstrates the tremendous growth in trade volumes.
Project for the creation of electronic interbank market will increase the efficiency and capacity of the Russian interbank market as a whole, increase the efficiency and capacity of the market to attract new members to it by increasing the liquidity of the market. Create an electronic interbank market also largely improves the existing technology in the Russian interbank lending market and will contribute to a well-functioning single Russian money market operations which are available for a wide range of participants.

Conclusion

Interbank loan plays a specific role in the economy: it not only ensures the continuity of production, but also accelerates it. Credit helps save distribution costs. This is achieved by reducing the costs of production, recording and storage of money, since some cash is unnecessary, accelerate circulation of money, re-use available funds, the reduction of reserve funds.
The role of interbank lending in the different phases of the economic cycle is different. With the economic recovery of sufficient economic stability of credit is a factor of growth. And redistributing huge amounts of commodities, credit feeds banks with additional resources. Its negative impact, however, can occur in overproduction. Especially noticeable is the impact in terms of inflation. New payment tools provided through a loan into circulation, increasing the already overweight money needed for treatment.
Bank, involving inter-bank loans, has an opportunity to improve their financial condition, and establish themselves in the banking market. Thus, inter-bank credits encourage banks to give benefit as lender-bank and the borrower, but the crisis has substantially reduced the already low flow of resources to the interbank market. To change this situation, the following measures:

- Changes in tax laws;

- The development of technology and infrastructure of the MBC.

References

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Date: 2015-12-11; view: 930